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Using SVM to Estimate and Predict Binary Choice Models

Yoosoon Chang, Joon Y. Park, Guo Yan

arXiv 30 Jan 2026 · Econometrics

arXiv:2601.22659 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

The support vector machine (SVM) has an asymptotic behavior that parallels that of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) for binary outcomes generated by a binary choice model (BCM), although it is not a QMLE. We show that, under the linear conditional mean condition for covariates given the systematic component used in the QMLE slope consistency literature, the slope of the separating hyperplane given by the SVM consistently estimates the BCM slope parameter, as long as the class weight is used as required when binary outcomes are severely imbalanced. The SVM slope estimator is asymptotically equivalent to that of logistic regression in this sense. The finite-sample performance of the two estimators can be quite distinct depending on the distributions of covariates and errors, but neither dominates the other. The intercept parameter of the BCM can be consistently estimated once a consistent estimator of its slope parameter is obtained.

Citation extraction

22
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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Chang, Yoosoon and Park, Joon Y and Yan, Guo (2025) Slope Consistency of Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator for Binary Choice Models self1.00063100%
2Charles F. Manski (1985) Semiparametric Analysis of Discrete Response: Asymptotic Properties of the Maximum Score Estimator0.7946450%
3Paul A Ruud (1986) Consistent Estimation of Limited Dependent Variable Models Despite Misspecification of Distribution0.73732100%
4Ja-Yong Koo and Yoonkyung Lee and Yuwon Kim and Changyi Park (2008) A Bahadur Representation of the Linear Support Vector Machine0.64441100%
5Joel L. Horowitz (1992) A Smoothed Maximum Score Estimator for the Binary Response Model0.64422100%
6Charles F. Manski (1975) Maximum Score Estimation of the Stochastic Utility Model of Choice0.64422100%
7Newey, Whitney K and Ruud, Paul A (1994) Density weighted linear least squares0.64422100%
8Chen, Le-Yu and Lee, Sokbae and Sung, Myung Jae (2014) Maximum Score Estimation with Nonparametrically Generated Regressors0.6066233%
9A.W. van der Vaart and Jon A. Wellner (1996) Weak Convergence and Empirical Processes0.5237314%
10A.W. van der Vaart (2000) Asymptotic Statistics0.5113233%

Showing the top 10 of 22 scored citations.