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Is the diurnal pattern sufficient to explain intraday variation in volatility? A nonparametric assessment

Kim Christensen, Ulrich Hounyo, Mark Podolskij

arXiv 23 Jan 2026 · Econometrics

arXiv:2601.16613 · PDF · Extracted main text

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a nonparametric way to test the hypothesis that time-variation in intraday volatility is caused solely by a deterministic and recurrent diurnal pattern. We assume that noisy high-frequency data from a discretely sampled jump-diffusion process are available. The test is then based on asset returns, which are deflated by the seasonal component and therefore homoskedastic under the null. To construct our test statistic, we extend the concept of pre-averaged bipower variation to a general Itô semimartingale setting via a truncation device. We prove a central limit theorem for this statistic and construct a positive semi-definite estimator of the asymptotic covariance matrix. The $t$-statistic (after pre-averaging and jump-truncation) diverges in the presence of stochastic volatility and has a standard normal distribution otherwise. We show that replacing the true diurnal factor with a model-free jump- and noise-robust estimator does not affect the asymptotic theory. A Monte Carlo simulation also shows this substitution has no discernable impact in finite samples. The test is, however, distorted by small infinite-activity price jumps. To improve inference, we propose a new bootstrap approach, which leads to almost correctly sized tests of the null hypothesis. We apply the developed framework to a large cross-section of equity high-frequency data and find that the diurnal pattern accounts for a rather significant fraction of intraday variation in volatility, but important sources of heteroskedasticity remain present in the data.

Citation extraction

87
references
147
in-text mentions
87
distinct cited
5
self-citations
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main-text words

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Hounyo, Goncalves, and Meddahi (2017) Bootstrapping pre-averaged realized volatility under market microstructure noise1.000103100%
2Podolskij and Vetter (2009) Bipower-type estimation in a noisy diffusion setting1.00083100%
3Christensen, Oomen, and Podolskij (2014) Fact or friction: Jumps at ultra high frequency self1.00054100%
4Jacod, Li, Mykland, Podolskij, and Vetter (2009) Microstructure noise in the continuous case: The pre-averaging approach1.00054100%
5Barndorff-Nielsen, Hansen, Lunde, and Shephard (2008) Designing realized kernels to measure the ex post variation of equity prices in the presence of noise1.00053100%
6Hounyo (2017) Bootstrapping integrated covariance matrix estimators in noisy jump-diffusion models with non-synchronous trading self0.92843100%
7Andersen and Bollerslev (1997) Intraday periodicity and volatility persistence in financial markets0.81142100%
8Boudt, Croux, and Laurent (2011) Robust estimation of intraweek periodicity in volatility and jump detection0.81142100%
9Andersen and Bollerslev (1998) Deutsche Mark-Dollar volatility: Intraday activity patterns, macroeconomic announcements, and longer run dependencies0.73732100%
10Andersen, Dobrev, and Schaumburg (2012) Jump-robust volatility estimation using nearest neighbour truncation0.73732100%

Showing the top 10 of 87 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1A nonparametric test for diurnal variation in spot correlation processes0.92843
2Heteroscedasticity test of high-frequency data with jumps and microstructure noise0.81142
3Warp Speed Price Moves: Jumps after Earnings Announcements0.51121
4Cointegration in high frequency data0.40511
5Estimating spot volatility under infinite variation jumps with dependent market microstructure noise0.40511