Hiroaki Kaido, Kirill Ponomarev
arXiv 24 Dec 2025 · Econometrics
arXiv:2512.20851 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
Exclusion and shape restrictions play a central role in defining causal effects and interpreting estimates in potential outcomes models. To date, the testable implications of such restrictions have been studied on a case-by-case basis in a limited set of models. In this paper, we develop a general framework for characterizing sharp testable implications of general support restrictions on the potential response functions, based on a novel graph-based representation of the model. The framework provides a unified and constructive method for deriving all observable implications of the modeling assumptions. We illustrate the approach in several popular settings, including instrumental variables, treatment selection, mediation, and interference. As an empirical application, we revisit the US Lung Health Study and test for the presence of spillovers between spouses, specification of exposure maps, and persistence of treatment effects over time.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yuehao Bai and Max Tabord-Meehan (2024) Sharp Testable Implications of Encouragement Designs | 1.000 | 7 | 3 | 100% |
| 2 | Artstein, Zvi (1983) Distributions of random sets and random selections | 1.000 | 5 | 3 | 100% |
| 3 | Kwon, Soonwoo and Roth, Jonathan (2024) Testing Mechanisms | 0.965 | 10 | 5 | 90% |
| 4 | Victor Chernozhukov and Sokbae Lee and Adam M. Rosen (2013) INTERSECTION BOUNDS: ESTIMATION AND INFERENCE | 0.941 | 6 | 3 | 83% |
| 5 | Donald W. K. Andrews and Gustavo Soares (2010) Inference for Parameters Defined by Moment Inequalities Using Generalized Moment Selection | 0.928 | 4 | 3 | 100% |
| 6 | Toru Kitagawa (2015) A Test For Instrument Validity | 0.909 | 8 | 4 | 75% |
| 7 | Mogstad, Magne and Torgovitsky, Alexander and Walters, Christopher R (2021) The Causal Interpretation of Two-Stage Least Squares with Multiple Instrumental Variables | 0.874 | 6 | 2 | 100% |
| 8 | Imbens, Guido W and Angrist, Joshua D (1994) Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects | 0.843 | 4 | 3 | 75% |
| 9 | Molchanov, Ilya and Molinari, Francesca (2018) Random sets in econometrics | 0.843 | 4 | 3 | 75% |
| 10 | Manski, Charles F (2013) Identification of treatment response with social interactions | 0.811 | 4 | 2 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 88 scored citations.
arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.
| Citing paper | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | On the falsification of instrumental variable models for heterogeneous treatment effects | 0.811 | 4 | 2 |