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Inference in partially identified moment models via regularized optimal transport

Grigory Franguridi, Laura Liu

arXiv 19 Dec 2025 · Econometrics

arXiv:2512.18084 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Partial identification often arises when the joint distribution of the data is known only up to its marginals. We consider the corresponding partially identified GMM model and develop a methodology for identification, estimation, and inference in this model. We characterize the sharp identified set for the parameter of interest via a support-function/optimal-transport (OT) representation. For estimation, we employ entropic regularization, which provides a smooth approximation to classical OT and can be computed efficiently by the Sinkhorn algorithm. We also propose a statistic for testing hypotheses and constructing confidence regions for the identified set. To derive the asymptotic distribution of this statistic, we establish a novel central limit theorem for the entropic OT value under general smooth costs. We then obtain valid critical values using the bootstrap for directionally differentiable functionals of Fang and Santos (2019). The resulting testing procedure controls size locally uniformly, including at parameter values on the boundary of the identified set. We illustrate its performance in a Monte Carlo simulation. Our methodology is applicable to a wide range of empirical settings, such as panels with attrition and refreshment samples, nonlinear treatment effects, nonparametric instrumental variables without large-support conditions, and Euler equations with repeated cross-sections.

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57
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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Fang, Zheng and Santos, Andres (2019) Inference on directionally differentiable functions1.00074100%
2Franguridi, Grigory and Moon, Hyungsik Roger (2025) Generalized method of moments with partially missing data self0.8434375%
3Mena, Gonzalo and Niles-Weed, Jonathan (2019) Statistical bounds for entropic optimal transport: sample complexity and the central limit theorem0.8435360%
4Cuturi, Marco (2013) Sinkhorn distances: Lightspeed computation of optimal transport0.81142100%
5Goldfeld, Ziv and Kato, Kengo and Rioux, Gabriel and Sadhu, Ritwik (2024) Statistical inference with regularized optimal transport0.74712342%
6Davezies, Laurent and D'Haultfoeuille, Xavier and Laage, Louise (2024) Identification and estimation of average marginal effects in fixed effects logit models0.7374350%
7Beresteanu, Arie and Molchanov, Ilya and Molinari, Francesca (2011) Sharp identification regions in models with convex moment predictions0.73732100%
8Galichon, Alfred and Salanié, Bernard (2022) Cupid's invisible hand: Social surplus and identification in matching models0.73732100%
9Fan, Yanqin and Pass, Brendan and Shi, Xuetao (2025) Partial Identification in Moment Models with Incomplete Data via Optimal Transport0.64422100%
10Hazard, Yagan and Kitagawa, Toru (2025) Who With Whom? Learning Optimal Matching Policies0.64422100%

Showing the top 10 of 57 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1An econometrician's guide to optimal transport0.64422
2Generalized Method of Moments with Partially Missing Data0.51122
3Closed-form estimation and inference for panels with attrition and refreshment samples0.40511
4Raking for Estimation and Inference in Panel Models with Nonignorable Attrition and Refreshment0.40511