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Treatment Effects with Correlated Spillovers: Bridging Discrete and Continuous Methods

Tatsuru Kikuchi

arXiv 14 Dec 2025 · Econometrics

arXiv:2512.12653 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

This paper develops a continuous functional framework for treatment effects propagating through geographic space and economic networks. We derive a master equation from three independent economic foundations -- heterogeneous agent aggregation, market equilibrium, and cost minimization -- establishing that the framework rests on fundamental principles rather than ad hoc specifications. The framework nests conventional econometric models -- autoregressive specifications, spatial autoregressive models, and network treatment effect models -- as special cases, providing a bridge between discrete and continuous methods. A key theoretical result shows that the spatial-network interaction coefficient equals the mutual information between geographic and network coordinates, providing a parameter-free measure of channel complementarity. The Feynman-Kac representation characterizes treatment effects as accumulated policy exposure along stochastic paths representing economic linkages, connecting the continuous framework to event study methodology. The no-spillover case emerges as a testable restriction, creating a one-sided risk profile where correct inference is maintained regardless of whether spillovers exist. Monte Carlo simulations confirm that conventional estimators exhibit 25-38% bias when spillovers are present, while our estimator maintains correct inference across all configurations including the no-spillover case.

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Callaway, Brantly and Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna (2021) Difference-in-Differences with Multiple Time Periods1.00053100%
2Bramoullé, Yann, Habiba Djebbari, and Bernard Fortin (2009) Identification of Peer Effects through Social Networks0.92843100%
3Sun, Liyang and Sarah Abraham (2021) Estimating Dynamic Treatment Effects in Event Studies with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects0.92843100%
4Hirano, Keisuke and Guido W. Imbens (2004) The Propensity Score with Continuous Treatments0.87452100%
5Kennedy, Edward H., Zongming Ma, Matthew D. McHugh, and Dylan S. Small (2017) Non-parametric Methods for Doubly Robust Estimation of Continuous Treatment Effects0.81142100%
6Acemoglu, Daron, Vasco M. Carvalho, Asuman Ozdaglar, and Alireza Tah… (2012) The Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations0.73732100%
7Barrot, Jean-Noël and Julien Sauvagnat (2016) Input Specificity and the Propagation of Idiosyncratic Shocks in Production Networks0.64422100%
8Borusyak, Kirill, Xavier Jaravel, and Jann Spiess (2024) Revisiting Event Study Designs: Robust and Efficient Estimation0.64422100%
9Conley, Timothy G (1999) GMM Estimation with Cross Sectional Dependence0.64422100%
10LeSage, James and R. Kelley Pace (2009) Introduction to Spatial Econometrics0.64422100%

Showing the top 10 of 35 scored citations.