arXiv 28 Nov 2025 · Econometrics
arXiv:2511.22886 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
We develop a new framework for evaluating the total policy effect in regression discontinuity designs (RDD), incorporating both the direct effect of treatment on outcomes and the indirect effect arising from distortions in the running variable when treatment becomes available. Our identification strategy combines a conditional parallel trend assumption to recover untreated potential outcomes with a local invariance assumption that characterizes how the running variable responds to counterfactual policy cutoffs. These components allow us to identify and estimate counterfactual treatment effects for any proposed threshold. We construct a nonparametric estimator for the total effect, derive its asymptotic distribution, and propose bootstrap inference procedures. Finally, we apply our framework to the Italian Domestic Stability Pact, where population-based fiscal rules generate both behavioral responses and running-variable distortions.
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| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grembi, Veronica and Nannicini, Tommaso and Troiano, Ugo (2016) Do fiscal rules matter? | 0.874 | 8 | 2 | 100% |
| 2 | Angrist, Joshua D and Rokkanen, Miikka (2015) Wanna get away? Regression discontinuity estimation of exam school effects away from the cutoff | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 3 | Dong, Yingying and Lewbel, Arthur (2015) Identifying the effect of changing the policy threshold in regression discontinuity models | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 4 | Lee, David S (2008) Randomized experiments from non-random selection in US House elections | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 5 | Armstrong, Timothy B and Kolesár, Michal (2020) Simple and honest confidence intervals in nonparametric regression | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 6 | Calonico, Sebastian and Cattaneo, Matias D and Titiunik, Rocio (2014) Robust nonparametric confidence intervals for regression-discontinuity designs | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 7 | Jones, M Chris and Linton, Oliver and Nielsen, Jens Perch (1995) A simple bias reduction method for density estimation | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 8 | Pagan, Adrian and Ullah, Aman (1999) Nonparametric econometrics | 0.000 | 2 | 1 | 0% |
| 9 | Jianqing Fan and Irene Gijbels (1996) Local Polynomial Modelling and Its Applications | 0.000 | 1 | 1 | 0% |
| 10 | Giné, Evarist and Guillou, Armelle (2002) Rates of strong uniform consistency for multivariate kernel density estimators | 0.000 | 1 | 1 | 0% |
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