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Approximate Least-Favorable Distributions and Nearly Optimal Tests via Stochastic Mirror Descent

Andrés Aradillas Fernández, José Blanchet, José Luis Montiel Olea, Chen Qiu, Jörg Stoye, Lezhi Tan

arXiv 21 Nov 2025 · Econometrics

arXiv:2511.16925 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

We consider a class of hypothesis testing problems where the null hypothesis postulates $M$ distributions for the observed data, and there is only one possible distribution under the alternative. We show that one can use a stochastic mirror descent routine for convex optimization to provably obtain - after finitely many iterations - both an approximate least-favorable distribution and a nearly optimal test, in a sense we make precise. Our theoretical results yield concrete recommendations about the algorithm's implementation, including its initial condition, its step size, and the number of iterations. Importantly, our suggested algorithm can be viewed as a slight variation of the algorithm suggested by Elliott, Müller, and Watson (2015), whose theoretical performance guarantees are unknown.

Citation extraction

44
references
90
in-text mentions
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distinct cited
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main-text words

appendix boundary found by appendix_titled_section at “Online Appendix” · 76% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Elliott, G., U. K. Müller, and M. W. Watson (2015) Nearly optimal tests when a nuisance parameter is present under the null hypothesis1.000166100%
2Bubeck, S (2015) Convex optimization: Algorithms and complexity0.9568488%
3Krafft, O. and H. Witting (1967) Optimale tests und ungünstigste verteilungen0.81142100%
4Moreira, H. and M. J. Moreira (2013) Contributions to the theory of optimal tests0.81142100%
5Nemirovski, A., A. Juditsky, G. Lan, and A. Shapiro (2009) Robust stochastic approximation approach to stochastic programming0.7373367%
6Dudley, R (2002) Real Analysis and Probability0.64422100%
7Aradillas Fernández, A., J. Blanchet, J. L. Montiel Olea, C. Qiu, J.… (2025) Epsilon-Minimax Solutions of Statistical Decision Problems via the Hedge Algorithm0.64422100%
8Nemirovski, A. and D. Yudin (1983) Problem Complexity and Method Efficiency in Optimization0.64422100%
9Polyak, B. T. and A. B. Juditsky (1992) Acceleration of stochastic approximation by averaging0.64422100%
10Ruppert, D (1988) Efficient estimations from a slowly convergent Robbins-Monro process, Tech0.64422100%

Showing the top 10 of 44 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Numerical Analysis of Test Optimality1.00064