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Do Test Scores Help Teachers Give Better Track Advice to Students? A Principal Stratification Analysis

Andrea Ichino, Fabrizia Mealli, Javier Viviens

arXiv 7 Nov 2025 · Econometrics

arXiv:2511.05128 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Every year, over one million EU students choose a secondary school track based on teacher recommendations, yet little evidence shows this yields optimal assignments. Using Dutch data, we examine whether access to standardized test scores improves recommendation quality. We develop a Principal-Stratification metric in a quasi-randomized setting, conduct a welfare analysis that flexibly weights short- and long-term losses, and assess principal fairness by examining whether test-score access affects equity across protected attributes. Results are robust to replacing the Exclusion Restriction assumption underlying our main identification strategy with alternative assumptions. Allowing recommendation upgrades when test scores exceed expectations increases successful placement in more demanding tracks by at least 6%, while misplacing 7% of weaker students. Only unrealistically high weights on short-term losses would justify banning such upgrades. Test-score access also yields fairer recommendations for immigrant and low-SES students. Our methodology and findings contribute to the literature on algorithm-assisted human decisions.

Citation extraction

44
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70
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appendix boundary found by appendix_command · 74% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1de Ree, J., M. Oosterveen, and D. Webbink (2025) The quality of school track assignment decisions by teachers1.00053100%
2Imai, K., Z. Jiang, J. Greiner, R. Halen, and S. Shin (2023) Experimental evaluation of algorithm-assisted human decision-making: Application to pretrial public safety assessment0.92815680%
3Imai, K. and Z. Jiang (2022) Principal fairness for human and algorithmic decision-making0.92843100%
4Frangakis, C. E. and D. B. Rubin (2002) Principal stratification in causal inference0.73732100%
5Angrist, J. D., G. Imbens, and D. Rubin (1996) Identification of causal effects using instrumental variables0.64422100%
6Ben-Michael, E., D. J. Greiner, M. Huang, K. Imai, Z. Jiang, and S.… (2024) Does ai help humans make better decisions? a methodological framework for experimental evaluation0.64422100%
7Mattei, A., L. Forastiere, and F. Mealli (2023) Assessing principal causal effects using principal score methods0.51121100%
8Alesina, A., M. Carlana, E. La Ferrara, and P. Pinotti (2024) Revealing stereotypes: Evidence from immigrants in schools0.40511100%
9Imbens, G. W. and J. D. Angrist (1994) Identification and estimation of local average treatment effects0.40511100%
10Bach, M (2023) Heterogeneous responses to school track choice: Evidence from the repeal of binding track recommendations0.40511100%

Showing the top 10 of 44 scored citations.