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Cross-Validated Causal Inference: a Modern Method to Combine Experimental and Observational Data

Xuelin Yang, Licong Lin, Susan Athey, Michael I. Jordan, Guido W. Imbens

arXiv 1 Nov 2025 · Econometrics

arXiv:2511.00727 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

We develop new methods to integrate experimental and observational data in causal inference. While randomized controlled trials offer strong internal validity, they are often costly and therefore limited in sample size. Observational data, though cheaper and often with larger sample sizes, are prone to biases due to unmeasured confounders. To harness their complementary strengths, we propose a systematic framework that formulates causal estimation as an empirical risk minimization (ERM) problem. A full model containing the causal parameter is obtained by minimizing a weighted combination of experimental and observational losses--capturing the causal parameter's validity and the full model's fit, respectively. The weight is chosen through cross-validation on the causal parameter across experimental folds. Our experiments on real and synthetic data show the efficacy and reliability of our method. We also provide theoretical non-asymptotic error bounds.

Citation extraction

35
references
80
in-text mentions
35
distinct cited
5
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27,194
main-text words

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Rajeev H Dehejia and Sadek Wahba (1999) Causal effects in nonexperimental studies: Reevaluating the evaluation of training programs1.000113100%
2Joseph S Ross, David Madigan, Kevin P Hill, David S Egilman, Yongfei… (2009) Pooled analysis of rofecoxib placebo-controlled clinical trial data: Lessons for postmarket pharmaceutical safety surveillance1.00084100%
3Evan TR Rosenman, Guillaume Basse, Art B Owen, and Mike Baiocchi (2023) Combining observational and experimental datasets using shrinkage estimators0.87452100%
4Shu Yang, Chenyin Gao, Donglin Zeng, and Xiaofei Wang (2023) Elastic integrative analysis of randomised trial and real-world data for treatment heterogeneity estimation0.87452100%
5Robert J LaLonde (1986) Evaluating the econometric evaluations of training programs with experimental data0.81142100%
6Shu Yang and Peng Ding (2020) Combining multiple observational data sources to estimate causal effects0.81142100%
7James M Robins, Andrea Rotnitzky, and Lue Ping Zhao (1994) Estimation of regression coefficients when some regressors are not always observed0.73732100%
8Leo Breiman (1996) Stacked regressions0.64422100%
9Chenyin Gao and Shu Yang (2023) Pretest estimation in combining probability and non-probability samples0.64422100%
10Edwin J Green and William E Strawderman (1991) A james-stein type estimator for combining unbiased and possibly biased estimators0.64422100%

Showing the top 10 of 35 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Testing Effect Homogeneity and Confounding in High-Dimensional Experimental and Observational Studies0.64422
2Introducing the b-value: combining unbiased and biased estimators from a sensitivity analysis perspective0.40511
3TITLE0.40511