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Robust Structural Estimation under Misspecified Latent-State Dynamics

Ertian Chen

arXiv 25 Oct 2025 · Econometrics

arXiv:2510.22347 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Estimation and counterfactual analysis in dynamic structural models rely on assumptions about the dynamic process of latent variables, which may be misspecified. We propose a framework to quantify the sensitivity of scalar parameters of interest (e.g., welfare, elasticity) to such assumptions. We derive bounds on the scalar parameter by perturbing a reference dynamic process, while imposing a stationarity condition for time-homogeneous models or a Markovian condition for time-inhomogeneous models. The bounds are the solutions to optimization problems, for which we derive a computationally tractable dual formulation. We establish consistency, convergence rate, and asymptotic distribution for the estimator of the bounds. We demonstrate the approach with two applications: an infinite-horizon dynamic demand model for new cars in the United Kingdom, Germany, and France, and a finite-horizon dynamic labor supply model for taxi drivers in New York City. In the car application, perturbed price elasticities deviate by at most 15.24% from the reference elasticities, while perturbed estimates of consumer surplus from an additional $3,000 electric vehicle subsidy vary by up to 102.75%. In the labor supply application, the perturbed Frisch labor supply elasticity deviates by at most 76.83% for weekday drivers and 42.84% for weekend drivers.

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102
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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Christensen, Timothy and Connault, Benjamin (2023) Counterfactual sensitivity and robustness1.00093100%
2Kalouptsidi, Myrto and Scott, Paul T and Souza-Rodrigues, Eduardo (2021) Linear IV regression estimators for structural dynamic discrete choice models1.00063100%
3Schennach, Susanne M (2014) Entropic latent variable integration via simulation1.00053100%
4Eckstein, Stephan and Nutz, Marcel (2024) Convergence rates for regularized optimal transport via quantization0.8746367%
5Schiraldi, Pasquale (2011) Automobile replacement: a dynamic structural approach0.87462100%
6Gowrisankaran, Gautam and Rysman, Marc (2012) Dynamics of consumer demand for new durable goods0.87452100%
7Eckstein, Stephan and Nutz, Marcel (2022) Quantitative Stability of Regularized Optimal Transport and Convergence of Sinkhorn's Algorithm0.84333100%
8Hotz, V Joseph and Miller, Robert A (1993) Conditional choice probabilities and the estimation of dynamic models0.84333100%
9Rust, John (1987) Optimal replacement of GMC bus engines: An empirical model of Harold Zurcher0.7373367%
10Arcidiacono, Peter and Miller, Robert A (2011) Conditional choice probability estimation of dynamic discrete choice models with unobserved heterogeneity0.73732100%

Showing the top 10 of 104 scored citations.