EconBase
← All papers

Blackwell without Priors

Maxwell Rosenthal

arXiv 9 Oct 2025 · Theoretical Economics

arXiv:2510.08709 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

This paper proposes a fully prior-free model of experimentation in which the decision maker observes the entire distribution of signals generated by a known experiment under an unknown distribution of the state of the world. One experiment is robustly more informative than another if the decision maker's maxmin expected utility after observing the output of the former is always at least her maxmin expected utility after observing the latter. We show that this ranking holds if and only if the less informative experiment is a linear transformation of the more informative experiment; equivalently, the null space of the more informative experiment is a subset of the null space of the less informative experiment. Our criterion is implied by Blackwell's order but does not imply it, and we show by example that our ranking admits strictly more comparable pairs of experiments than the classical ranking.

Citation extraction

12
references
12
in-text mentions
12
distinct cited
0
self-citations
3,721
main-text words

appendix boundary found by none_found · 100% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Angrist, Joshua D. and Imbens, Guido W. and Rubin, Donald B (1996) Identification of Causal Effects Using Instrumental Variables0.40511100%
2Imbens, Guido W. and Angrist, Joshua D (1994) Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects0.40511100%
3Jian Li and Junjie Zhou (2016) Blackwell's informativeness ranking with uncertainty-averse preferences0.40511100%
4Manski, Charles F (2003) Partial Identification of Probability Distributions0.40511100%
5Molinari, Francesca (2020) Microeconometrics with Partial Identification0.40511100%
6Tamer, Elie (2010) Partial Identification in Econometrics0.40511100%
7Whitmeyer, Mark (2025) Blackwell-Monotone Updating Rules0.40511100%
8Blackwell, David (1951) Comparison of Experiments0.40511100%
9Blackwell, David (1953) Equivalent Comparisons of Experiments0.40511100%
10Celen, Bo ga chan (2012) Informativeness of experiments for MEU0.40511100%

Showing the top 10 of 12 scored citations.