Luis Aguiar-Conraria, Vasco J. Gabriel, Luis F. Martins, Anthoulla Phella
arXiv 11 Sep 2025 · physics.ao-ph
arXiv:2509.21334 · PDF · Extracted main text
We use continuous wavelet tools to characterize the dynamics of climate change across time and frequencies. This approach allows us to capture the changing patterns in the relationship between global mean temperature anomalies and climate forcings. Using historical data from 1850 to 2022, we find that greenhouse gases, and CO$_2$ in particular, play a significant role in driving the very low frequency trending behaviour in temperatures, even after controlling for the effects of natural forcings. At shorter frequencies, the effect of forcings on temperatures switches on and off, most likely because of complex feedback mechanisms in Earth's climate system.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Phella, Anthoulla, Gabriel, Vasco J., & Martins, Luis F (2024) Predicting tail risks and the evolution of temperatures self | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 2 | Miller, J. I., & Nam, K (2020) Dating hiatuses: a statistical model of the recent slowdown in global warming and the next one | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 3 | Pretis, F., Mann, M. L., & Kaufmann, R. K (2015) Testing competing models of the temperature hiatus: assessing the effects of conditioning variables and temporal uncertainties t… | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 4 | Aguiar-Conraria, Luís, & Soares, Maria Joana (2014) The Continuous Wavelet Transform: Moving Beyond Uni- and Bivariate Analysis self | 0.511 | 3 | 2 | 33% |
| 5 | Aguiar-Conraria, Luís, Joana Soares, Maria, & Sousa, Rita (2018) California's carbon market and energy prices: a wavelet analysis self | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 6 | Gillett, N. P., Arora, V. K., Matthews, D., & Allen, M. R (2013) Constraining the Ratio of Global Warming to Cumulative CO2 Emissions Using CMIP5 Simulations | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 7 | Matthews, H. D., Gillett, N. P., Stott, P. A., & Zickfeld, K (2009) The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 8 | Agliardi, E., Alexopoulos, T., & Cech, C (2019) On the relationship between GHGs and global temperature anomalies: Multi-level rolling analysis and copula calibration | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 9 | Engle, Robert F (1976) Interpreting Spectral Analyses in Terms of Time-Domain Models | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 10 | Alessio, Silvia (2015) Digital signal processing and spectral analysis for scientists: concepts and applications | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 31 scored citations.