Austin Feng, Francesco Ruggieri
arXiv 4 Aug 2025 · Econometrics
arXiv:2508.02658 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
We propose a structural approach to extrapolate average partial effects away from the cutoff in regression discontinuity designs (RDDs). Our focus is on applications that exploit closely contested school district referenda to estimate the effects of changes in education spending on local economic outcomes. We embed these outcomes in a spatial equilibrium model of local jurisdictions in which fiscal policy is determined by majority rule voting. This integration provides a microfoundation for the running variable, the share of voters who approve a ballot initiative, and enables identification of structural parameters using RDD coefficients. We then leverage the model to simulate the effects of counterfactual referenda over a broad range of proposed spending changes. These scenarios imply realizations of the running variable away from the threshold, allowing extrapolation of RDD estimates to nonmarginal referenda. Applying the method to school expenditure ballot measures in Wisconsin, we document substantial heterogeneity in housing price capitalization across the approval margin.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barbara Biasi, Julien Lafortune \ David Schönholzer (2025) What Works and for Whom? Effectiveness and Efficiency of School Capital Investments Across the U.S | 1.000 | 9 | 5 | 100% |
| 2 | Stephanie Cellini, Fernando Ferreira \ Jesse Rothstein (2010) The Value of School Facility Investments: Evidence from a Dynamic Regression Discontinuity Design | 1.000 | 9 | 5 | 100% |
| 3 | Christopher Berry (2024) The Timing of Local Elections | 0.843 | 3 | 3 | 100% |
| 4 | Jason Baron (2022) School Spending and Student Outcomes: Evidence from Revenue Limit Elections in Wisconsin | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 5 | Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato \ Owen Zidar (2016) Who Benefits from State Corporate Tax Cuts? A Local Labor Market Approach with Heterogeneous Firms | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 6 | Sebastian Calonico, Matias Cattaneo \ Rocío Titiunik (2014) Robust Nonparametric Confidence Intervals for Regression Discontinuity Designs | 0.644 | 4 | 1 | 100% |
| 7 | Sarah Anzia (2014) Timing and Turnout: How Off-Cycle Elections Favor Organized Groups. University of Chicago Press | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 8 | Jinyong Hahn, Petra Todd \ Wilbert Van der Klaauw (2001) Identification and Estimation of Treatment Effects with a Regression-Discontinuity Design | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 9 | Wallace Oates (1969) The Effects of Property Taxes and Local Public Spending on Property Values: An Empirical Study of Tax Capitalization and the Tie… | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 10 | Donald Rubin (1987) Multiple Imputation for Nonresponse in Surveys. Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics, John Wiley & Sons | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
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