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Testing for multiple change-points in macroeconometrics: an empirical guide and recent developments

Otilia Boldea, Alastair R. Hall

arXiv 29 Jul 2025 · Econometrics

arXiv:2507.22204 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

We review recent developments in detecting and estimating multiple change-points in time series models with exogenous and endogenous regressors, panel data models, and factor models. This review differs from others in multiple ways: (1) it focuses on inference about the change-points in slope parameters, rather than in the mean of the dependent variable - the latter being common in the statistical literature; (2) it focuses on detecting - via sequential testing and other methods - multiple change-points, and only discusses one change-point when methods for multiple change-points are not available; (3) it is meant as a practitioner's guide for empirical macroeconomists first, and as a result, it focuses only on the methods derived under the most general assumptions relevant to macroeconomic applications.

Citation extraction

109
references
235
in-text mentions
109
distinct cited
3
self-citations
17,645
main-text words

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Bai and Perron (1998) `Estimating and testing linear models with multiple structural changes', Econometrica\/, 66: 47–781.000224100%
2Bai and Perron (2003) `Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models', Journal of Applied Econometrics\/, 18: 1–230.92843100%
3Boldea, Cornea-Madeira, and Hall (2019) `Bootstrapping structural change tests', Journal of Econometrics\/, 213: 359–397 self0.874122100%
4Hall, Han, and Boldea (2012) `Inference regarding multiple structural changes in linear models with endogenous regressors', Journal of Econometrics\/, 170: 2… self0.87472100%
5Antoine, Boldea, and Zaccaria (2024) `Efficient two-sample instrumental variable estimators with change points and near-weak identification', arXiv preprint arXiv:24…0.81142100%
6Andrews (1993) `Tests for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point', Econometrica\/, 61: 821–8560.73732100%
7Horváth and Rice (2025) Change Point Analysis for Time Series\/0.73732100%
8Perron and Yamamoto (2015) `Using OLS to estimate and test for structural changes in models with endogenous regressors', Journal of Applied Econometrics\/,…0.73732100%
9Han and Inoue (2015) `Tests for parameter instability in dynamic factor models', Econometric Theory\/, 31: 1117–11520.69381100%
10Baltagi, Kao, and Wang (2021) `Estimating and testing high dimensional factor models with multiple structural changes', Journal of Econometrics\/, 220: 349–3650.69371100%

Showing the top 10 of 109 scored citations.