EconBase
← All papers

How weak are weak factors? Uniform inference for signal strength in signal plus noise models

Anna Bykhovskaya, Vadim Gorin, Sasha Sodin

arXiv 24 Jul 2025 · Statistics — Methodology

arXiv:2507.18554 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

The paper analyzes four classical signal-plus-noise models: the factor model, spiked sample covariance matrices, the sum of a Wigner matrix and a low-rank perturbation, and canonical correlation analysis with low-rank dependencies. The objective is to construct confidence intervals for the signal strength that are uniformly valid across all regimes - strong, weak, and critical signals. We demonstrate that traditional Gaussian approximations fail in the critical regime. Instead, we introduce a universal transitional distribution that enables valid inference across the entire spectrum of signal strengths. The approach is illustrated through applications in macroeconomics and finance.

Citation extraction

122
references
237
in-text mentions
126
distinct cited
0
self-citations
15,799
main-text words

appendix boundary found by appendix_titled_section at “Appendix A: Random Stieltjes transform at the edge and asymptotics” · 35% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1A. Onatski (2012) Asymptotics of the principal components estimator of large factor models with weakly influential factors0.9619589%
2D. Paul (2007) Asymptotics of sample eigenstructure for a large dimensional spiked covariance model0.9285480%
3M. Capitaine, C. Donati-Martin, and D. Féral (2012) Central limit theorems for eigenvalues of deformations of Wigner matrices0.9285380%
4F. Benaych-Georges and R. R. Nadakuditi (2012) The singular values and vectors of low rank perturbations of large rectangular random matrices0.8746567%
5J. Bai and S. Ng (2002) Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models0.87452100%
6A. Bykhovskaya and V. Gorin (2025) High-dimensional canonical correlation analysis0.86011564%
7J. Baik, G. Ben Arous, and S. Péché (2005) Phase transition of the largest eigenvalue for nonnull complex sample covariance matrices0.84333100%
8I. M. Johnstone and D. Paul (2018) PCA in high dimensions: An orientation0.84333100%
9A. Bloemendal and B. Virág (2013) Limits of spiked random matrices I0.81142100%
10M. Mo (2012) Rank 1 real Wishart spiked model0.81142100%

Showing the top 10 of 126 scored citations.