Zheng Fan, Worapree Maneesoonthorn, Yong Song
arXiv 18 Jul 2025 · Econometrics
arXiv:2507.14408 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
We propose the Markov Switching Dynamic Shrinkage process (MSDSP), nesting the Dynamic Shrinkage Process (DSP) of Kowal et al. (2019). We revisit the Meese-Rogoff puzzle (Meese and Rogoff, 1983a,b, 1988) by applying the MSDSP to the economic models deemed inferior to the random walk model for exchange rate predictions. The flexibility of the MSDSP model captures the possibility of zero coefficients (sparsity), constant coefficient (dynamic shrinkage), as well as sudden and gradual parameter movements (structural change) in the time-varying parameter model setting. We also apply MSDSP in the context of Bayesian predictive synthesis (BPS) (McAlinn and West, 2019), where dynamic combination schemes exploit the information from the alternative economic models. Our analysis provide a new perspective to the Meese-Rogoff puzzle, illustrating that the economic models, enhanced with the parameter flexibility of the MSDSP, produce predictive distributions that are superior to the random walk model, even when stochastic volatility is considered.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kowal, D. R., Matteson, D. S., and Ruppert, D (2019) Dynamic shrinkage processes | 1.000 | 8 | 3 | 100% |
| 2 | McAlinn, K. and West, M (2019) Dynamic bayesian predictive synthesis in time series forecasting | 1.000 | 7 | 3 | 100% |
| 3 | Rossi, B (2013) Exchange rate predictability | 0.874 | 10 | 2 | 100% |
| 4 | Meese, R. A. and Rogoff, K (1983) Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies: Do they fit out of sample? | 0.843 | 3 | 3 | 100% |
| 5 | Ferraro, D., Rogoff, K., and Rossi, B (2015) Can oil prices forecast exchange rates? an empirical analysis of the relationship between commodity prices and exchange rates | 0.811 | 4 | 2 | 100% |
| 6 | Bernardi, M., Bianchi, D., and Bianco, N (2023) Dynamic variable selection in high-dimensional predictive regressions | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 7 | Huber, F., Koop, G., and Onorante, L (2021) Inducing sparsity and shrinkage in time-varying parameter models | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 8 | Meese, R. A. and Rogoff, K (1983) The out-of-sample failure of empirical exchange rate models: Sampling error or misspecification? | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 9 | Meese, R. A. and Rogoff, K (1988) Was it real? the exchange rate-interest differential relation over the modern floating-rate period | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 10 | Rockova, V. and McAlinn, K (2021) Dynamic variable selection with spike-and-slab process priors | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
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