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Regional compositional trajectories and structural change: A spatiotemporal multivariate autoregressive framework

Matthias Eckardt, Philipp Otto

arXiv 18 Jul 2025 · Statistics — Applications

arXiv:2507.14389 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Compositional data, such as regional shares of economic sectors or property transactions, are central to understanding structural change in economic systems across space and time. This paper introduces a spatiotemporal multivariate autoregressive model tailored for panel data with composition-valued responses at each areal unit and time point. The proposed framework enables the joint modelling of temporal dynamics and spatial dependence under compositional constraints and is estimated via a quasi maximum likelihood approach. We build on recent theoretical advances to establish identifiability and asymptotic properties of the estimator when both the number of regions and time points grow. The utility and flexibility of the model are demonstrated through two applications: analysing property transaction compositions in an intra-city housing market (Berlin), and regional sectoral compositions in Spain's economy. These case studies highlight how the proposed framework captures key features of spatiotemporal economic processes that are often missed by conventional methods.

Citation extraction

38
references
46
in-text mentions
38
distinct cited
1
self-citations
11,059
main-text words

appendix boundary found by appendix_titled_section at “Appendix” · 72% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Kelejian, H. H. and Prucha, I. R (1998) A generalized spatial two-stage least squares procedure for estimating a spatial autoregressive model with autoregressive distur…0.64422100%
2Aitchison, J (2001) Simplicial inference0.64422100%
3Pawlowsky‐Glahn, V. and Buccianti, A (2011) Compositional Data Analysis0.64422100%
4Otto, P (2024) A multivariate spatial and spatiotemporal ARCH model self0.64422100%
5Tsagris, M., Preston, S., and Wood, A. T. A (2016) Improved classification for compositional data using the $$-transformation0.51121100%
6Yu, J., de Jong, R., and Lee, L.-f (2008) Quasi-maximum likelihood estimators for spatial dynamic panel data with fixed effects when both $n$ and $T$ are large0.51121100%
7Yang, K. and Lee, L.-f (2017) Identification and QML estimation of multivariate and simultaneous equations spatial autoregressive models0.51121100%
8Aitchinson, J. and Shen, S (1980) Logistic-normal distributions:some properties and uses0.40511100%
9Aitchinson, J (1983) Principal component analysis of compositional data0.40511100%
10Aitchison, J (1986) The Statistical Analysis of Compositional Data0.40511100%

Showing the top 10 of 38 scored citations.