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Correlated Synthetic Controls

Tzvetan Moev

arXiv 11 Jul 2025 · Econometrics

arXiv:2507.08918 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Synthetic Control methods have recently gained considerable attention in applications with only one treated unit. Their popularity is partly based on the key insight that we can predict good synthetic counterfactuals for our treated unit. However, this insight of predicting counterfactuals is generalisable to microeconometric settings where we often observe many treated units. We propose the Correlated Synthetic Controls (CSC) estimator for such situations: intuitively, it creates synthetic controls that are correlated across individuals with similar observables. When treatment assignment is correlated with unobservables, we show that the CSC estimator has more desirable theoretical properties than the difference-in-differences estimator. We also utilise CSC in practice to obtain heterogeneous treatment effects in the well-known Mariel Boatlift study, leveraging additional information from the PSID.

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1D. Card (1990) The impact of the mariel boatlift on the miami labor market1.00073100%
2G. Peri and V. Yasenov (2018) The labor market effects of a refugee wave1.00063100%
3D. Arkhangelsky, S. Athey, D. A. Hirshberg, G. W. Imbens, and S. Wager (1812) Synthetic difference in differences1.00053100%
4G. J. Borjas (2017) The wage impact of the marielitos: A reappraisal0.9568388%
5E. Ben-Michael, A. Feller, and J. Rothstein (1912) Synthetic controls with staggered adoption0.94112483%
6A. Abadie and J. L'Hour (2020) A penalized synthetic control estimator for disaggregated data0.91613577%
7A. Abadie, A. Diamond, and J. Hainmueller (2010) Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: Estimating the effect of california’s tobacco control program0.90215773%
8B. Ferman and C. Pinto (1911) Synthetic controls with imperfect pre-treatment fit0.8746367%
9I. Botosaru and B. Ferman (2019) On the role of covariates in the synthetic control method0.8307357%
10N. Doudchenko and G. Imbens Balancing, regression, difference-in-differences and synthetic control methods: A synthesis0.7636267%

Showing the top 10 of 57 scored citations.