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Efficient and Scalable Estimation of Distributional Treatment Effects with Multi-Task Neural Networks

Tomu Hirata, Undral Byambadalai, Tatsushi Oka, Shota Yasui, Shingo Uto

arXiv 10 Jul 2025 · Machine Learning · 1 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2507.07738 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

We propose a novel multi-task neural network approach for estimating distributional treatment effects (DTE) in randomized experiments. While DTE provides more granular insights into the experiment outcomes over conventional methods focusing on the Average Treatment Effect (ATE), estimating it with regression adjustment methods presents significant challenges. Specifically, precision in the distribution tails suffers due to data imbalance, and computational inefficiencies arise from the need to solve numerous regression problems, particularly in large-scale datasets commonly encountered in industry. To address these limitations, our method leverages multi-task neural networks to estimate conditional outcome distributions while incorporating monotonic shape constraints and multi-threshold label learning to enhance accuracy. To demonstrate the practical effectiveness of our proposed method, we apply our method to both simulated and real-world datasets, including a randomized field experiment aimed at reducing water consumption in the US and a large-scale A/B test from a leading streaming platform in Japan. The experimental results consistently demonstrate superior performance across various datasets, establishing our method as a robust and practical solution for modern causal inference applications requiring a detailed understanding of treatment effect heterogeneity.

Citation extraction

69
references
84
in-text mentions
69
distinct cited
4
self-citations
6,103
main-text words

appendix boundary found by appendix_command · 55% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Alberto Abadie (2002) Bootstrap tests for distributional treatment effects in instrumental variable models0.64422100%
2Susan Athey and Guido W. Imbens (2006) Identification and inference in nonlinear difference-in-differences models0.64422100%
3Victor Chernozhukov and Christian Hansen (2005) An iv model of quantile treatment effects0.64422100%
4Denis Chetverikov, Andres Santos, and Azeem M Shaikh (2018) The econometrics of shape restrictions0.64422100%
5Guido W. Imbens and Donald B. Rubin (2015) Causal Inference for Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences0.64422100%
6Michael Crawshaw (2020) Multi-task learning with deep neural networks: A survey0.64422100%
7Donald B Rubin (1974) Estimating causal effects of treatments in randomized and nonrandomized studies0.64422100%
8Donald B Rubin (1980) Randomization analysis of experimental data: The fisher randomization test comment, 19800.64422100%
9Seungil You, David Ding, Kevin Canini, Jan Pfeifer, and Maya Gupta (2017) Deep lattice networks and partial monotonic functions0.64422100%
10Maya Gupta, Dara Bahri, Andrew Cotter, and Kevin Canini (2018) Diminishing returns shape constraints for interpretability and regularization0.64422100%

Showing the top 10 of 69 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Beyond the Average: Distributional Causal Inference under Imperfect Compliance0.40511