Stephane Hess, Andrew Daly, Michiel Bliemer, Angelo Guevara, Ricardo Daziano, Thijs Dekker
arXiv 6 Jun 2025 · Econometrics · publishedJournal of Choice Modelling (2026)
arXiv:2506.05996 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
This paper offers a commentary on the use of notions of statistical significance in choice modelling. We argue that, as in many other areas of science, there is an over-reliance on 95% confidence levels, and misunderstandings of the meaning of significance. We also observe a lack of precision in the reporting of measures of uncertainty in many studies, especially when using p-values and even more so with star measures. The paper provides a precise discussion on the computation of measures of uncertainty and confidence intervals, discusses the use of statistical tests, and also stresses the importance of considering behavioural or policy significance in addition to statistical significance.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daly, A.J. and Hess, S. and de Jong, G (2012) Calculating errors for measures derived from choice modelling estimates self | 0.843 | 3 | 3 | 100% |
| 2 | Luisa Scaccia and Edoardo Marcucci and Valerio Gatta (2023) Prediction and confidence intervals of willingness-to-pay for mixed logit models | 0.843 | 3 | 3 | 100% |
| 3 | Bliemer, Michiel C.J. and Rose, John M (2013) Confidence intervals of willingness-to-pay for random coefficient logit models self | 0.843 | 3 | 3 | 100% |
| 4 | Stephen T. Ziliak and Deirdre N. McCloskey (2008) The Cult of Statistical Significance: How the Standard Error Costs Us Jobs, Justice, and Lives | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 5 | Ronald L. Wasserstein and Allen L. Schirm and Nicole A. Lazar (2019) Moving to a World Beyond “p < 0.05” | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 6 | Abadie, Alberto (2020) Statistical nonsignificance in empirical economics | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 7 | Stephane Hess and David Palma (2019) Apollo: A flexible, powerful and customisable freeware package for choice model estimation and application self | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 8 | Benjamini, Yoav and Hochberg, Yosef (2018) Controlling the False Discovery Rate: A Practical and Powerful Approach to Multiple Testing | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 9 | P. Armstrong and R. A. Garrido and J. de D Ortúzar (2001) Confidence interval to bound the value of time | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 10 | C. Cirillo and K. Lindveld and A. Daly (2000) Eliminating bias due to the repeated measurements problem in SP data self | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 47 scored citations.