Harold D. Chiang, Jack Collison, Lorenzo Magnolfi, Christopher Sullivan
arXiv 5 Jun 2025 · Econometrics
arXiv:2506.05225 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
This paper develops a flexible approach to predict the price effects of horizontal mergers using ML/AI methods. While standard merger simulation techniques rely on restrictive assumptions about firm conduct, we propose a data-driven framework that relaxes these constraints when rich market data are available. We develop and identify a flexible nonparametric model of supply that nests a broad range of conduct models and cost functions. To overcome the curse of dimensionality, we adapt the Variational Method of Moments (VMM) (Bennett and Kallus, 2023) to estimate the model, allowing for various forms of strategic interaction. Monte Carlo simulations show that our method significantly outperforms an array of misspecified models and rivals the performance of the true model, both in predictive performance and counterfactual merger simulations. As a way to interpret the economics of the estimated function, we simulate pass-through and reveal that the model learns markup and cost functions that imply approximately correct pass-through behavior. Applied to the American Airlines-US Airways merger, our method produces more accurate post-merger price predictions than traditional approaches. The results demonstrate the potential for machine learning techniques to enhance merger analysis while maintaining economic structure.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Craig Peters (2006) Evaluating the Performance of Merger Simulation: Evidence from the US Airline Industry | 1.000 | 5 | 3 | 100% |
| 2 | Steven Berry and Philip Haile (2014) Identification in Differentiated Products Markets Using Market Level Data | 0.874 | 10 | 2 | 100% |
| 3 | Andrew Bennett and Nathan Kallus (2023) The Variational Method of Moments | 0.874 | 8 | 2 | 100% |
| 4 | Giovanni Compiani (2022) Market Counterfactuals and the Specification of Multiproduct Demand: A Nonparametric Approach | 0.737 | 3 | 3 | 67% |
| 5 | Gregory J Werden and Luke M Froeb (1994) The effects of mergers in differentiated products industries: Logit demand and merger policy | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 6 | Han Hong, Aprajit Mahajan, and Denis Nekipelov (2015) Extremum estimation and numerical derivatives | 0.644 | 4 | 1 | 100% |
| 7 | Steven Berry, James Levinsohn, and Ariel Pakes (1995) Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium | 0.511 | 3 | 2 | 33% |
| 8 | José Azar, Martin C Schmalz, and Isabel Tecu (2018) Anticompetitive effects of common ownership | 0.511 | 2 | 2 | 50% |
| 9 | Steven Berry and Panle Jia (2010) Tracing the woes: An empirical analysis of the airline industry | 0.511 | 2 | 2 | 50% |
| 10 | Pauline Kennedy, Daniel P O'Brien, Minjae Song, and Keith Waehrer (2017) The competitive effects of common ownership: Economic foundations and empirical evidence | 0.511 | 2 | 2 | 50% |
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