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The Spurious Factor Dilemma: Robust Inference in Heavy-Tailed Elliptical Factor Models

Jiang Hu, Jiahui Xie, Yangchun Zhang, Wang Zhou

arXiv 5 Jun 2025 · Statistics — Methodology

arXiv:2506.05116 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Factor models are essential tools for analyzing high-dimensional data, particularly in economics and finance. However, standard methods for determining the number of factors often overestimate the true number when data exhibit heavy-tailed randomness, misinterpreting noise-induced outliers as genuine factors. This paper addresses this challenge within the framework of Elliptical Factor Models (EFM), which accommodate both heavy tails and potential non-linear dependencies common in real-world data. We demonstrate theoretically and empirically that heavy-tailed noise generates spurious eigenvalues that mimic true factor signals. To distinguish these, we propose a novel methodology based on a fluctuation magnification algorithm. We show that under magnifying perturbations, the eigenvalues associated with real factors exhibit significantly less fluctuation (stabilizing asymptotically) compared to spurious eigenvalues arising from heavy-tailed effects. This differential behavior allows the identification and detection of the true and spurious factors. We develop a formal testing procedure based on this principle and apply it to the problem of accurately selecting the number of common factors in heavy-tailed EFMs. Simulation studies and real data analysis confirm the effectiveness of our approach compared to existing methods, particularly in scenarios with pronounced heavy-tailedness.

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38
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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1A. Onatski (2010) Determining the number of factors from empirical distribution of eigenvalues0.96911591%
2L. Yu, P. Zhao, and W. Zhou (2025) Testing the number of common factors by bootstrapped sample covariance matrix in high-dimensional factor models0.9285480%
3E. Dobriban and A. B. Owen (2018) Deterministic parallel analysis: An improved method for selecting factors and principal components0.87462100%
4B. H. Baltagi, C. Kao, and F. Wang (2017) Identification and estimation of a large factor model with structural instability0.73732100%
5G. Chamberlain and M. Rothschild (1983) Arbitrage, factor structure, and mean-variance analysis on large asset markets0.73732100%
6J. Fan, H. Liu, and W. Wang (2018) Large covariance estimation through elliptical factor models0.73732100%
7S. C. Ahn and A. R. Horenstein (2013) Eigenvalue ratio test for the number of factors0.64422100%
8T. T. Cai, X. Han, and G. Pan (2020) Limiting laws for divergent spiked eigenvalues and largest nonspiked eigenvalue of sample covariance matrices0.64422100%
9L. Yu, Y. He, and X. Zhang (2019) Robust factor number specification for large-dimensional elliptical factor model0.58531100%
10Z. T. Ke, Y. Ma, and X. Lin (2023) Estimation of the number of spiked eigenvalues in a covariance matrix by bulk eigenvalue matching analysis0.58531100%

Showing the top 10 of 38 scored citations.