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What Makes Treatment Effects Identifiable? Characterizations and Estimators Beyond Unconfoundedness

Yang Cai, Alkis Kalavasis, Katerina Mamali, Anay Mehrotra, Manolis Zampetakis

arXiv 4 Jun 2025 · Mathematics — Statistics Theory · 1 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2506.04194 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Most of the widely used estimators of the average treatment effect (ATE) in causal inference rely on the assumptions of unconfoundedness and overlap. Unconfoundedness requires that the observed covariates account for all correlations between the outcome and treatment. Overlap requires the existence of randomness in treatment decisions for all individuals. Nevertheless, many types of studies frequently violate unconfoundedness or overlap, for instance, observational studies with deterministic treatment decisions - popularly known as Regression Discontinuity designs - violate overlap. In this paper, we initiate the study of general conditions that enable the identification of the average treatment effect, extending beyond unconfoundedness and overlap. In particular, following the paradigm of statistical learning theory, we provide an interpretable condition that is sufficient and necessary for the identification of ATE. Moreover, this condition also characterizes the identification of the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) and can be used to characterize other treatment effects as well. To illustrate the utility of our condition, we present several well-studied scenarios where our condition is satisfied and, hence, we prove that ATE can be identified in regimes that prior works could not capture. For example, under mild assumptions on the data distributions, this holds for the models proposed by Tan (2006) and Rosenbaum (2002), and the Regression Discontinuity design model introduced by Thistlethwaite and Campbell (1960). For each of these scenarios, we also show that, under natural additional assumptions, ATE can be estimated from finite samples. We believe these findings open new avenues for bridging learning-theoretic insights and causal inference methodologies, particularly in observational studies with complex treatment mechanisms.

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125
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289
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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Tan, Zhiqiang (2006) A Distributional Approach for Causal Inference Using Propensity Scores1.000124100%
2Kalavasis, Alkis, Mehrotra, Anay, Zampetakis, Manolis, Agrawal, Ship… (2024) Smaller Confidence Intervals From IPW Estimators via Data-Dependent Coarsening (Extended Abstract) self1.00083100%
3Chernozhukov, Victor, Hansen, Christian, Kallus, Nathan, Spindler, M… (2024) Applied Causal Inference Powered by ML and AI1.00074100%
4Li, Fan, Thomas, Laine E., Li, Fan (2018) Addressing Extreme Propensity Scores via the Overlap Weights1.00073100%
5Crump, Richard K., Hotz, V. Joseph, Imbens, Guido W., Mitnik, Oscar A (2009) Dealing with Limited Overlap in Estimation of Average Treatment Effects1.00063100%
6Khan, Samir, Ugander, Johan (2024) Doubly-Robust and Heteroscedasticity-Aware Sample Trimming for Causal Inference1.00053100%
7Rosenbaum, Paul R (2002) Observational Studies0.98320695%
8Thistlethwaite, Donald L., Campbell, Donald T (1960) Regression-Discontinuity Analysis: An Alternative to the Ex Post Facto Experiment0.9619589%
9Kallus, Nathan, Zhou, Angela (2021) Minimax-Optimal Policy Learning Under Unobserved Confounding0.9507586%
10Hahn, Jinyong, Todd, Petra, Klaauw, Wilbert Van (2001) Identification and Estimation of Treatment Effects with a Regression-Discontinuity Design0.9507386%

Showing the top 10 of 125 scored citations.