arXiv 17 May 2025 · Econometrics
arXiv:2505.11967 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
Economists use quantitative trade and spatial models to make counterfactual predictions. Because such predictions often inform policy decisions, it is important to communicate the uncertainty surrounding them. Three key challenges arise in this setting: the data are dyadic and exhibit complex dependence; the number of interacting units is typically small; and counterfactual predictions depend on the data in two distinct ways-through the estimation of structural parameters and through their role as inputs into the model's counterfactual equilibrium. I address these challenges by proposing a new Bayesian bootstrap procedure tailored to this context. The method is simple to implement and provides both finite-sample Bayesian and asymptotic frequentist guarantees. Revisiting the results in Waugh (2010), Caliendo and Parro (2015), and Artu\c{c} et al. (2010) illustrates the practical advantages of the approach.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Graham (2020) Network data | 1.000 | 9 | 4 | 100% |
| 2 | Davezies, D'haultfuille, and Guyonvarch (2021) Empirical process results for exchangeable arrays | 0.971 | 12 | 5 | 92% |
| 3 | Van der Vaart (2000) Asymptotic statistics | 0.961 | 9 | 3 | 89% |
| 4 | Menzel (2021) Bootstrap with cluster-dependence in two or more dimensions | 0.928 | 4 | 3 | 100% |
| 5 | Waugh (2010) International trade and income differences | 0.921 | 50 | 10 | 78% |
| 6 | Graham (2020) Dyadic regression | 0.916 | 13 | 6 | 77% |
| artucc2010trade | unmatched citation key artucc2010trade | 0.909 | 28 | 7 | 75% |
| 8 | Silva and Tenreyro (2006) The log of gravity | 0.874 | 6 | 4 | 67% |
| 9 | Caliendo and Parro (2015) Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA | 0.857 | 27 | 7 | 63% |
| 10 | Pollard (1984) Convergence of stochastic processes | 0.737 | 5 | 2 | 60% |
Showing the top 10 of 48 scored citations. 1 of these could not be matched to a bibliography entry, so only the citation key is shown.
arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.
| Citing paper | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Measurement Error and Counterfactuals in Quantitative Trade and Spatial Models | 0.511 | 2 | 2 |