Demian Pouzo, Martin Sola, Zacharias Psaradakis
arXiv 30 Apr 2025 · Econometrics · publishedEconometric Theory (2025)
arXiv:2504.21669 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
This paper studies the robustness of quasi-maximum-likelihood (QML) estimation in hidden Markov models (HMMs) when the regime-switching structure is misspecified. Specifically, we examine the case where the true data-generating process features a hidden Markov regime sequence with covariate-dependent transition probabilities, but estimation proceeds under a simplified mixture model that assumes regimes are independent and identically distributed. We show that the parameters governing the conditional distribution of the observables can still be consistently estimated under this misspecification, provided certain regularity conditions hold. Our results highlight a practical benefit of using computationally simpler mixture models in settings where regime dependence is complex or difficult to model directly.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pouzo, D., Z. Psaradakis, and M. Sola (2022) Maximum likelihood estimation in Markov regime-switching models with covariate-dependent transition probabilities self | 1.000 | 7 | 3 | 100% |
| 2 | Cho, J. S. and H. White (2007) Testing for regime switching | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 3 | Holzmann, H., A. Munk, and B. Stratman (2004) Identifiability of finite mixtures - with applications to circular distributions | 0.585 | 3 | 1 | 100% |
| 4 | Holzmann, H., A. Munk, and T. Gneiting (2006) Identifiability of finite mixtures of elliptical distributions | 0.585 | 3 | 1 | 100% |
| 5 | Compiani, G. and Y. Kitamura (2016) Using mixtures in econometric models: a brief review and some new results | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 6 | Yakowitz, S. J. and J. D. Spragins (1968) On the identifiability of finite mixtures | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 7 | Bates, C. and H. White (1985) A unified theory of consistent estimation for parametric models | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 8 | Carter, A. V. and D. G. Steigerwald (2012) Testing for regime switching: A comment | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 9 | Domowitz, I. and H. White (1982) Misspecified models with dependent observations | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 10 | Engel, C. and C. S. Hakkio (1996) The distribution of the exchange rate in the EMS | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 33 scored citations.