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Inference on effect size after multiple hypothesis testing

Andreas Dzemski, Ryo Okui, Wenjie Wang

arXiv 28 Mar 2025 · Econometrics

arXiv:2503.22369 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Significant treatment effects are often emphasized when interpreting and summarizing empirical findings in studies that estimate multiple, possibly many, treatment effects. Under this kind of selective reporting, conventional treatment effect estimates may be biased and their corresponding confidence intervals may undercover the true effect sizes. We propose new estimators and confidence intervals that provide valid inferences on the effect sizes of the significant effects after multiple hypothesis testing. Our methods are based on the principle of selective conditional inference and complement a wide range of tests, including step-up tests and bootstrap-based step-down tests. Our approach is scalable, allowing us to study an application with over 370 estimated effects. We justify our procedure for asymptotically normal treatment effect estimators. We provide two empirical examples that demonstrate bias correction and confidence interval adjustments for significant effects. The magnitude and direction of the bias correction depend on the correlation structure of the estimated effects and whether the interpretation of the significant effects depends on the (in)significance of other effects.

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116
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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Berk, Richard and Brown, Lawrence and Buja, Andreas and Zhang, Kai a… (2013) Valid Post-Selection Inference1.00053100%
2Romano, Joseph P and Wolf, Michael (2005) Stepwise multiple testing as formalized data snooping0.9285580%
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4Lee, Jason D. and Sun, Dennis L. and Sun, Yuekai and Taylor, Jonatha… (2016) Exact post-selection inference, with application to the lasso0.87452100%
5Andrews, Isaiah and Kitagawa, Toru and McCloskey, Adam (2024) Inference on Winners*0.84333100%
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10Leiner, James and Duan, Boyan and Wasserman, Larry and Ramdas, Aaditya (2025) Data fission: splitting a single data point0.64441100%

Showing the top 10 of 49 scored citations.