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Detecting Sparse Cointegration

Jesus Gonzalo, Jean-Yves Pitarakis

arXiv 23 Jan 2025 · Statistics — Methodology · publishedOxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics (2026)

arXiv:2501.13839 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

We propose a two-step procedure to detect cointegration in high-dimensional settings, focusing on sparse relationships. First, we use the adaptive LASSO to identify the small subset of integrated covariates driving the equilibrium relationship with a target series, ensuring model-selection consistency. Second, we adopt an information-theoretic model choice criterion to distinguish between stationarity and nonstationarity in the resulting residuals, avoiding dependence on asymptotic distributional assumptions. Monte Carlo experiments confirm robust finite-sample performance, even under endogeneity and serial correlation.

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