arXiv 13 Jan 2025 · Econometrics · publishedInternational Journal of Forecasting (2025) · 1 citations (OpenAlex)
arXiv:2501.07386 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
This paper discusses three key themes in forecasting for monetary policy highlighted in the Bernanke (2024) review: the challenges in economic forecasting, the conditional nature of central bank forecasts, and the importance of forecast evaluation. In addition, a formal evaluation of the Bank of England's inflation forecasts indicates that, despite the large forecast errors in recent years, they were still accurate relative to common benchmarks.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bernanke, B (2024) Forecasting for monetary policy making and communication at the Bank of England: a review | 1.000 | 12 | 7 | 100% |
| 2 | Diebold, Francis X and Mariano, Roberto S (1995) Comparing Predictive Accuracy | 0.874 | 8 | 2 | 100% |
| 3 | Coroneo, Laura and Iacone, Fabrizio (2020) Comparing predictive accuracy in small samples using fixed-smoothing asymptotics self | 0.874 | 5 | 2 | 100% |
| 4 | Kanngiesser, Derrick and Willems, Tim (2024) Forecast accuracy and efficiency at the Bank of England – and how errors can be leveraged to do better | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 5 | Alessi, Lucia and Ghysels, Eric and Onorante, Luca and Peach, Richar… (2014) Central bank macroeconomic forecasting during the global financial crisis: The European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of… | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 6 | Coroneo, Laura and Iacone, Fabrizio and Profumo, Fabio (2024) Survey density forecast comparison in small samples self | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 7 | Coroneo, Laura and Iacone, Fabrizio (2024) Testing for equal predictive accuracy with strong dependence self | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 8 | Groen, Jan JJ and Paap, Richard and Ravazzolo, Francesco (2013) Real-time inflation forecasting in a changing world | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 9 | Guisinger, Amy Y and McCracken, Michael W and Owyang, Michael T (2024) Reconsidering the Fed's Inflation Forecasting Advantage | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 10 | Sims, Christopher A (2002) The role of models and probabilities in the monetary policy process | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 86 scored citations.