EconBase
← All papers

Asymptotic Properties of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator for Markov-switching Observation-driven Models

Frederik Krabbe

arXiv 27 Dec 2024 · Econometrics

arXiv:2412.19555 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

A Markov-switching observation-driven model is a stochastic process $((S_t,Y_t))_{t \in \mathbb{Z}}$ where (i) $(S_t)_{t \in \mathbb{Z}}$ is an unobserved Markov process taking values in a finite set and (ii) $(Y_t)_{t \in \mathbb{Z}}$ is an observed process such that the conditional distribution of $Y_t$ given all past $Y$'s and the current and all past $S$'s depends only on all past $Y$'s and $S_t$. In this paper, we prove the consistency and asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator for such model. As a special case hereof, we give conditions under which the maximum likelihood estimator for the widely applied Markov-switching generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model introduced by Haas et al. (2004b) is consistent and asymptotic normal.

Citation extraction

45
references
139
in-text mentions
45
distinct cited
1
self-citations
15,604
main-text words

appendix boundary found by appendix_command · 35% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1R. Douc, Éric Moulines, and T. Rydén (2004) Asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator in autoregressive models with markov regime1.000144100%
2M. Haas, S. Mittnik, and M. S. Paolella (2004) A new approach to markov-switching garch models1.000136100%
3H. Kasahara and K. Shimotsu (2019) Asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator in regime switching econometric models1.000134100%
4B. M. Kandji and A. Misko (2024) Markov-switching normal-mixture garch1.00063100%
5C. Francq, M. Roussignol, and J.-M. Zakoïan (2001) Conditional heteroskedasticity driven by hidden markov chains1.00054100%
6P. Bougerol (1993) Kalman filtering with random coefficients and contractions0.8435360%
7C. Francq and M. Roussignol (1998) Ergodicity of autoregressive processes with markov-switching and consistency of the maximum-likelihood estimator0.84333100%
8M. Haas, S. Mittnik, and M. S. Paolella (2004) Mixed normal conditional heteroskedasticity0.84333100%
9F. Blasques, P. Gorgi, S. J. Koopman, and O. Wintenberger (2018) Feasible invertibility conditions and maximum likelihood estimation for observation-driven models0.73732100%
10D. Straumann and T. Mikosch (2006) Quasi-maximum-likelihood estimation in conditionally heteroscedastic time series: A stochastic recurrence equations approach0.66727530%

Showing the top 10 of 45 scored citations.