Souhir Ben Amor, Smaranda Sgarciu, Taimyra BatzLineiro, Felix Muesgens
arXiv 23 Dec 2024 · Econometrics · publishedApplied Energy (2025) · 4 citations (OpenAlex)
arXiv:2412.17379 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
Global warming is caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2). A metric used to quantify the change in CO2 emissions is the marginal emission factor, defined as the marginal change in CO2 emissions resulting from a marginal change in electricity demand over a specified period. This paper aims to present two methodologies to estimate the marginal emission factor in a decarbonized electricity system with high temporal resolution. First, we present an energy systems model that incrementally calculates the marginal emission factors. Second, we examine a Markov Switching Dynamic Regression model, a statistical model designed to estimate marginal emission factors faster and use an incremental marginal emission factor as a benchmark to assess its precision. For the German electricity market, we estimate the marginal emissions factor time series historically (2019, 2020) using Agora Energiewende and for the future (2025, 2030, and 2040) using estimated energy system data. The results indicate that the Markov Switching Dynamic Regression model is more accurate in estimating marginal emission factors than the Dynamic Linear Regression models, which are frequently used in the literature. Hence, the Markov Switching Dynamic Regression model is a simpler alternative to the computationally intensive incremental marginal emissions factor, especially when short-term marginal emissions factor estimation is needed. The results of the marginal emission factor estimation are applied to an exemplary low-emission vehicle charging scenario to estimate CO2 savings by shifting the charge hours to those corresponding to the lower marginal emissions factor. By implementing this emission-minimized charging approach, an average reduction of 31% in the marginal emission factor was achieved over the 5 years.
appendix boundary found by appendix_command · 83% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.
The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elenes, Williams, Hittinger \ Goteti (2022) How well do emission factors approximate emission changes from electricity system models?, Environmental Science & Technology 56… | 1.000 | 20 | 3 | 100% |
| 2 | Hawkes (2010) Estimating marginal co2 emissions rates for national electricity systems, Energy Policy 38(10): 5977–5987 | 1.000 | 16 | 3 | 100% |
| 3 | Hawkes (2014) Long-run marginal co2 emissions factors in national electricity systems, Applied Energy 125: 197–205 | 0.874 | 12 | 2 | 100% |
| 4 | Thind, Wilson, Azevedo \ Marshall (2017) Marginal emissions factors for electricity generation in the midcontinent iso, Environmental science & technology 51(24): 14445–… | 0.874 | 10 | 2 | 100% |
| 5 | Ryan, Johnson \ Keoleian (2016) Comparative assessment of models and methods to calculate grid electricity emissions, Environmental science & technology 50(17):… | 0.874 | 8 | 2 | 100% |
| 6 | Seckinger \ Radgen (2021) Dynamic prospective average and marginal ghg emission factors—scenario-based method for the german power system until 2050, Ener… | 0.874 | 8 | 2 | 100% |
| 7 | Huber, Lohmann, Schmidt \ Weinhardt (2021) Carbon efficient smart charging using forecasts of marginal emission factors, Journal of Cleaner Production 284: 124766 | 0.874 | 6 | 2 | 100% |
| 8 | Fleschutz, Bohlayer, Braun, Henze \ Murphy (2021) The effect of price-based demand response on carbon emissions in european electricity markets: The importance of adequate carbon… | 0.874 | 5 | 2 | 100% |
| 9 | Donti, Kolter \ Azevedo (2019) How much are we saving after all? characterizing the effects of commonly varying assumptions on emissions and damage estimates i… | 0.811 | 4 | 2 | 100% |
| 10 | Ripp \ Steinke (2018) A first shot at time-dependent co 2 intensities in multi-modal energy systems, 2018 15th International Conference on the Europea… | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 83 scored citations.