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On Extrapolation of Treatment Effects in Multiple-Cutoff Regression Discontinuity Designs

Yuta Okamoto, Yuuki Ozaki

arXiv 5 Dec 2024 · Econometrics

arXiv:2412.04265 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

We investigate how to learn treatment effects away from the cutoff in multiple-cutoff regression discontinuity designs. Using a microeconomic model, we demonstrate that the parallel-trend type assumption proposed in the literature is justified when cutoff positions are assigned as if randomly and the running variable is non-manipulable (e.g., parental income). However, when the running variable is partially manipulable (e.g., test scores), extrapolations based on that assumption can be biased. As a complementary strategy, we propose a novel partial identification approach based on empirically motivated assumptions. We also develop a uniform inference procedure and provide two empirical illustrations.

Citation extraction

55
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135
in-text mentions
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distinct cited
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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Cattaneo, M. D., Keele, L., Titiunik, R., and Vazquez-Bare, G (2021) Extrapolating Treatment Effects in Multi-Cutoff Regression Discontinuity Designs0.95423687%
2Melguizo, T., Sanchez, F., and Velasco, T (2016) Credit for Low-Income Students and Access to and Academic Performance in Higher Education in Colombia: A Regression Discontinuit…0.92843100%
3Calonico, S., Cattaneo, M. D., and Farrell, M. H (2018) On the Effect of Bias Estimation on Coverage Accuracy in Nonparametric Inference0.8746367%
4McCrary, J (2008) Manipulation of the Running Variable in the Regression Discontinuity Design: A Density Test0.87452100%
5Londoño-Vélez, J., Rodríguez, C., and Sánchez, F (2020) Upstream and Downstream Impacts of College Merit-Based Financial Aid for Low-Income Students: Ser Pilo Paga in Colombia0.8434375%
6Calonico, S., Cattaneo, M. D., and Titiunik, R (2014) Robust Nonparametric Confidence Intervals for Regression-Discontinuity Designs0.8435360%
7Dong, Y. and Lewbel, A (2015) Identifying the Effect of Changing the Policy Threshold in Regression Discontinuity Models0.81142100%
8Fudenberg, D. and Levine, D. K (2022) Learning in Games and the Interpretation of Natural Experiments0.81142100%
9Hahn, J., Todd, P., and Van der Klaauw, W (2001) Identification and Estimation of Treatment Effects with a Regression-Discontinuity Design0.73732100%
10Mammen, E (1993) Bootstrap and Wild Bootstrap for High Dimensional Linear Models0.7257257%

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Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Joint Inference for the Regression Discontinuity Effect and Its External Validity1.00073