Emile Esmaili, Michael J. Puma, Francis Ludlow, Poul Holm, Eva Jobbova
arXiv 28 Nov 2024 · Econometrics
arXiv:2411.18978 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
Economic historians have long studied market integration and contagion dynamics during periods of warfare and global stress, but there is a lack of model-based evidence on these phenomena. This paper uses an econometric contagion model, the Diebold-Yilmaz framework, to examine the dynamics of economic shocks across European markets in the early modern period. Our findings suggest that key periods of violent conflicts significantly increased food price spillover across cities, causing widespread disruptions across Europe. We also demonstrate the ability of this framework to capture relevant historical dynamics between the main trade centers of the period.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francis Diebold and Kamil Yilmaz (2009) Measuring financial asset return and volatility spillovers, with application to global equity markets | 0.843 | 3 | 3 | 100% |
| 2 | Francis X. Diebold and Kamil Yılmaz (2014) On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 3 | Francis Diebold and Kamil Yilmaz (2012) Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 4 | Larry Neal (1977) Interpreting power and profit in economic history: A case study of the seven years war | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 5 | Peter Brecke (1999) Violent conflicts 1400 ad to the present in different regions of the world | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 6 | Francis X. Diebold and Kamil Yilmaz (1973) On the past, present, and future of the diebold–yilmaz approach to dynamic network connectedness | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 7 | Giovanni Federico, Max-Stephan Schulze, and Oliver Volckart (2021) European goods market integration in the very long run: From the black death to the first world war | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 8 | Gregory C. Reinsel and Sung K. Ahn (1992) Vector Autoregressive Models With Unit Roots And Reduced Rank Structure:Estimation. Likelihood Ratio Test, And Forecasting | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 9 | Marion W. Haurwitz and Glenn W. Brier A critique of the superposed epoch analysis method: Its application to solar–weather relations | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 10 | M. P. Rao, E. R. Cook, B. I. Cook, K. J. Anchukaitis, R. D. D'Arrigo… (2019) A double bootstrap approach to superposed epoch analysis to evaluate response uncertainty | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
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