Aryan Eftekhari, Doris Folini, Aleksandra Friedl, Felix Kübler, Simon Scheidegger, Olaf Schenk
arXiv 16 Nov 2024 · Econometrics
arXiv:2411.10768 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
We introduce a framework for developing efficient and interpretable climate emulators (CEs) for economic models of climate change. The paper makes two main contributions. First, we propose a general framework for constructing carbon-cycle emulators (CCEs) for macroeconomic models. The framework is implemented as a generalized linear multi-reservoir (box) model that conserves key physical quantities and can be customized for specific applications. We consider three versions of the CCE, which we evaluate within a simple representative agent economic model: (i) a three-box setting comparable to DICE-2016, (ii) a four-box extension, and (iii) a four-box version that explicitly captures land-use change. While the three-box model reproduces benchmark results well and the fourth reservoir adds little, incorporating the impact of land-use change on the carbon storage capacity of the terrestrial biosphere substantially alters atmospheric carbon stocks, temperature trajectories, and the optimal mitigation path. Second, we investigate pattern-scaling techniques that transform global-mean temperature projections from CEs into spatially heterogeneous warming fields. We show how regional baseline climates, non-uniform warming, and the associated uncertainties propagate into economic damages.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ciais, P., C. Sabine, G. Bala, L. Bopp, V. Brovkin, et al., and Joan… (2014) Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles | 0.941 | 6 | 3 | 83% |
| 2 | Folini, Doris, Aleksandra Friedl, Felix Kübler, and Simon Scheidegger (2024) The climate in climate economics self | 0.890 | 17 | 6 | 71% |
| 3 | Lynch, Cary, Corinne Hartin, Ben Bond-Lamberty, and Ben Kravitz (2017) An open-Access CMIP5 pattern library for temperature and precipitation: Description and methodology | 0.874 | 13 | 2 | 100% |
| 4 | Desmet, Klaus and Esteban Rossi-Hansberg (2024) Climate change economics over time and space | 0.874 | 7 | 2 | 100% |
| 5 | Nordhaus, William D (2017) Revisiting the Social Cost of Carbon | 0.874 | 7 | 2 | 100% |
| 6 | Krusell, Per and Jr. Smith, Anthony A (2022) Climate change around the world | 0.874 | 6 | 2 | 100% |
| 7 | Geoffroy, Olivier, D. Saint-Martin, G. Bellon, A. Voldoire, D. J.L.… (2013) Transient climate response in a two-layer energy-balance model. Part II: Representation of the efficacy of deep-ocean heat uptak… | 0.811 | 4 | 2 | 100% |
| 8 | Kotlikoff, Laurence, Felix Kubler, Andrey Polbin, and Simon Scheideg… (2024) Can today’s and tomorrow’s world uniformly gain from carbon taxation? | 0.811 | 4 | 2 | 100% |
| 9 | Santer, B. D., T. M. L Wigley, M. E. Schlesinger, and J. F. B. Mitch… (1990) Developing climate scenarios from equilibrium GCM results | 0.811 | 4 | 2 | 100% |
| 10 | Tebaldi, Claudia and Julie M. Arblaster (2014) Pattern scaling: Its strengths and limitations, and an update on the latest model simulations | 0.811 | 4 | 2 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 68 scored citations.