EconBase
← All papers

Sparse Interval-valued Time Series Modeling with Machine Learning

Haowen Bao, Yongmiao Hong, Yuying Sun, Shouyang Wang

arXiv 14 Nov 2024 · Econometrics · 1 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2411.09452 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

By treating intervals as inseparable sets, this paper proposes sparse machine learning regressions for high-dimensional interval-valued time series. With LASSO or adaptive LASSO techniques, we develop a penalized minimum distance estimation, which covers point-based estimators are special cases. We establish the consistency and oracle properties of the proposed penalized estimator, regardless of whether the number of predictors is diverging with the sample size. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the favorable finite sample properties of the proposed estimation. Empirical applications to interval-valued crude oil price forecasting and sparse index-tracking portfolio construction illustrate the robustness and effectiveness of our method against competing approaches, including random forest and multilayer perceptron for interval-valued data. Our findings highlight the potential of machine learning techniques in interval-valued time series analysis, offering new insights for financial forecasting and portfolio management.

Citation extraction

70
references
122
in-text mentions
70
distinct cited
7
self-citations
11,631
main-text words

appendix boundary found by appendix_titled_section at “Online Appendix of \\``Sparse Interval-valued Time Series Modeling with Machine Learning"” · 93% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Sun, Y., Han, A., Hong, Y., and Wang, S (2018) Threshold autoregressive models for interval-valued time series data self1.00074100%
2He, Y., Han, A., Hong, Y., Sun, Y., and Wang, S (2021) Forecasting crude oil price intervals and return volatility via autoregressive conditional interval models self1.00064100%
3Han, A., Hong, Y., Wang, S., and Yun, X (2016) A vector autoregressive moving average model for interval-valued time series data self0.9507586%
4González-Rivera, G. and Lin, W (2013) Constrained regression for interval-valued data0.87462100%
5Neto, E. d. A. L. and de Carvalho, F. d. A (2008) Centre and range method for fitting a linear regression model to symbolic interval data0.84333100%
6Fan, J. and Peng, H (2004) Nonconcave penalized likelihood with a diverging number of parameters0.7374275%
7Zou, H (2006) The adaptive lasso and its oracle properties0.7373367%
8Yang, Z., Lin, D. K., and Zhang, A (2019) Interval-valued data prediction via regularized artificial neural network0.73732100%
9Yang, W., Han, A., Hong, Y., and Wang, S (2016) Analysis of crisis impact on crude oil prices: a new approach with interval time series modelling self0.73732100%
10Han, A., Hong, Y., Sun, Y., and Wang, S (2020) Autoregressive conditional models for interval-valued time series data self0.73732100%

Showing the top 10 of 70 scored citations.