arXiv 7 Nov 2024 · Econometrics
arXiv:2411.04380 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
Recent literature proposes combining short-term experimental and long-term observational data to provide credible alternatives to conventional observational studies for identification of long-term average treatment effects (LTEs). I show that experimental data have an auxiliary role in this context. They bring no identifying power without additional modeling assumptions. When modeling assumptions are imposed, experimental data serve to amplify their identifying power. If the assumptions fail, adding experimental data may only yield results that are farther from the truth. Motivated by this, I introduce two assumptions on treatment response that may be defensible based on economic theory or intuition. To utilize them, I develop a novel two-step identification approach that centers on bounding temporal link functions -- the relationship between short-term and mean long-term potential outcomes. The approach provides sharp bounds on LTEs for a general class of assumptions, and allows for imperfect experimental compliance -- extending existing results.
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| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Imbens, Guido and Kallus, Nathan and Mao, Xiaojie and Wang, Yuhao (2024) Long-term causal inference under persistent confounding via data combination | 1.000 | 5 | 5 | 100% |
| 2 | Yechan Park and Yuya Sasaki (2024) The Informativeness of Combined Experimental and Observational Data under Dynamic Selection | 1.000 | 5 | 4 | 100% |
| 3 | Garc\'ia, Jorge Luis and Heckman, James J and Leaf, Duncan Ermini an… (2020) Quantifying the life-cycle benefits of an influential early-childhood program | 0.965 | 10 | 5 | 90% |
| 4 | Susan Athey and Raj Chetty and Guido Imbens (2025) Using Experiments to Correct for Selection in Observational Studies | 0.950 | 7 | 5 | 86% |
| 5 | Beresteanu, Arie and Molchanov, Ilya and Molinari, Francesca (2012) Partial identification using random set theory | 0.941 | 6 | 3 | 83% |
| 6 | Deming, David (2009) Early childhood intervention and life-cycle skill development: Evidence from Head Start | 0.941 | 6 | 3 | 83% |
| 7 | Aizer, Anna and Early, Nancy and Eli, Shari and Imbens, Guido and Le… (2024) The Lifetime Impacts of the New Deal's Youth Employment Program | 0.928 | 4 | 3 | 100% |
| 8 | Chen, Jiafeng and Ritzwoller, David M (2023) Semiparametric estimation of long-term treatment effects | 0.928 | 4 | 3 | 100% |
| 9 | Ghassami, AmirEmad and Yang, Alan and Richardson, David and Shpitser… (2022) Combining experimental and observational data for identification and estimation of long-term causal effects | 0.928 | 4 | 3 | 100% |
| 10 | Hu, Wenjie and Zhou, Xiaohua and Wu, Peng (2022) Identification and estimation of treatment effects on long-term outcomes in clinical trials with external observational data | 0.928 | 4 | 3 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 73 scored citations.
arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.
| Citing paper | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Econometric Inference with Machine-Learned Proxies: Partial Identification via Data Combination | 0.405 | 1 | 1 |