Philip Marx, Elie Tamer, Xun Tang
arXiv 24 Oct 2024 · Econometrics · 1 citations (OpenAlex)
arXiv:2410.19060 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
We study the identification of heterogeneous, intertemporal treatment effects (TE) when potential outcomes depend on past treatments. First, applying a dynamic panel data model to observed outcomes, we show that an instrumental variable (IV) version of the estimand in Arellano and Bond (1991) recovers a non-convex (negatively weighted) aggregate of TE plus non-vanishing trends. We then provide conditions on sequential exchangeability (SE) of treatment and on TE heterogeneity that reduce such an IV estimand to a convex (positively weighted) aggregate of TE. Second, even when SE is generically violated, such estimands identify causal parameters when potential outcomes are generated by dynamic panel data models with some homogeneity or mild selection assumptions. Finally, we motivate SE and compare it with parallel trends (PT) in various settings with experimental data (when treatments are sequentially randomized) and observational data (when treatments are dynamic, rational choices under learning).
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arellano and Bond (1991) Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations | 1.000 | 11 | 3 | 100% |
| 2 | Robins (1986) A new approach to causal inference in mortality studies with a sustained exposure period–- application to control of the healthy… | 0.874 | 6 | 2 | 100% |
| 3 | De Chaisemartin and d'Haultfoeuille (2020) Two-way fixed effects estimators with heterogeneous treatment effects | 0.874 | 5 | 2 | 100% |
| 4 | Robins and Hernán (2008) Estimation of the causal effects of time-varying exposures | 0.843 | 3 | 3 | 100% |
| 5 | Anderson and Hsiao (1982) Formulation and Estimation of Dynamic Models Using Panel Data | 0.811 | 4 | 2 | 100% |
| 6 | Goodman-Bacon (2021) Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 7 | de Chaisemartin and D'Haultfoeuille (2024) Difference-in-differences estimators of intertemporal treatment effects | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 8 | Marx, Tamer, and Tang (2024) Parallel trends and dynamic choices self | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 9 | Ashenfelter (1978) Estimating the effect of training programs on earnings | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 10 | Robins (1997) Marginal structural models | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 26 scored citations.
arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.
| Citing paper | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Event-Study Designs for Discrete Outcomes under Transition Independence | 0.644 | 2 | 2 |
| 2 | Beyond Parallel Trends: An Identification-Strategy-Robust Approach to Causal Inference with Panel Data | 0.405 | 1 | 1 |