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A Structural Approach to Growth-at-Risk

Robert Wojciechowski

arXiv 6 Oct 2024 · Econometrics

arXiv:2410.04431 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

We identify the structural impulse responses of quantiles of the outcome variable to a shock. Our estimation strategy explicitly distinguishes treatment from control variables, allowing us to model responses of unconditional quantiles while using controls for identification. Disentangling the effect of adding control variables on identification versus interpretation brings our structural quantile impulse responses conceptually closer to structural mean impulse responses. Applying our methodology to study the impact of financial shocks on lower quantiles of output growth confirms that financial shocks have an outsized effect on growth-at-risk, but the magnitude of our estimates is more extreme than in previous studies.

Citation extraction

29
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60
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7,942
main-text words

appendix boundary found by appendix_titled_section at “Appendix” · 88% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Powell, David (2020) Quantile Treatment Effects in the Presence of Covariates0.95014486%
2Koenker, Roger, Bassett, Gilbert (1978) Regression Quantiles0.9507486%
3Angrist, Joshua D., Kuersteiner, Guido M (2011) Causal Effects of Monetary Shocks: Semiparametric Conditional Independence Tests with a Multinomial Propensity Score0.73732100%
4Jordá, Ó (2005) Estimation and inference of impulse responses by local projections0.73732100%
5Adrian, Tobias, Boyarchenko, Nina, Giannone, Domenico (2019) Vulnerable Growth0.58531100%
6Gilchrist, Simon, Zakrajšek, Egon (2012) Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations0.58531100%
7Plagborg-Møller, Mikkel, Wolf, Christian K (2021) Local Projections and VARs Estimate the Same Impulse Responses0.58531100%
8Loria, Francesca, Matthes, Christian, Zhang, Donghai (2024) Assessing macroeconomic tail risk0.51121100%
9Montes-Rojas, Gabriel (2019) Multivariate Quantile Impulse Response Functions0.51121100%
10Adrian, Tobias, Duarte, Fernando, Liang, Nellie, Zabczyk, Pawel (2020) NKV: A New Keynesian Model with Vulnerability0.40511100%

Showing the top 10 of 29 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Fused LASSO as Non-Crossing Quantile Regression0.40511