Siyu Bie, Francis X. Diebold, Jingyu He, Junye Li
arXiv 23 Aug 2024 · Econometrics · 1 citations (OpenAlex)
arXiv:2408.12863 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
We explore tree-based macroeconomic regime-switching in the context of the dynamic Nelson-Siegel (DNS) yield-curve model. In particular, we customize the tree-growing algorithm to partition macroeconomic variables based on the DNS model's marginal likelihood, thereby identifying regime-shifting patterns in the yield curve. Compared to traditional Markov-switching models, our model offers clear economic interpretation via macroeconomic linkages and ensures computational simplicity. In an empirical application to U.S. Treasury yields, we find (1) important yield-curve regime switching, and (2) evidence that macroeconomic variables have predictive power for the yield curve when the federal funds rate is high, but not in other regimes, thereby refining the notion of yield curve ”macro-spanning”.
appendix boundary found by appendix_command · 78% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.
The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Diebold, F. X., G. D. Rudebusch, and S. B. Aruoba (2006) The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a dynamic latent factor approach self | 0.928 | 4 | 3 | 100% |
| 2 | Diebold, F. X. and C. Li (2006) Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields self | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 3 | Dai, Q., K. J. Singleton, and W. Yang (2007) Regime shifts in a dynamic term structure model of U.S. treasury bond yields | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 4 | Hevia, C., M. Gonzalez-Rozada, M. Sola, and F. Spagnolo (2015) Estimating and forecasting the yield curve using a Markov switching dynamic Nelson and Siegel model | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 5 | Nelson, C. R. and A. F. Siegel (1987) Parsimonious modeling of yield curves | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 6 | Xiang, J. and X. Zhu (2013) A regime-switching Nelson–Siegel term structure model and interest rate forecasts | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 7 | Bauer, M. D. and G. D. Rudebusch (2017) Resolving the spanning puzzle in macro-finance term structure models | 0.585 | 3 | 1 | 100% |
| 8 | Bansal, R. and H. Zhou (2002) Term structure of interest rates with regime shifts | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 9 | Hamilton, J. D (1989) A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 10 | Ang, A. and G. Bekaert (2002) Regime switches in interest rates | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 36 scored citations.