Shosei Sakaguchi, Hayato Tagawa
arXiv 1 Aug 2024 · Econometrics
arXiv:2408.00291 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
The synthetic control method (SCM) is widely used for causal inference with panel data, particularly when there are few treated units. SCM assumes the stable unit treatment value assumption (SUTVA), which posits that potential outcomes are unaffected by the treatment status of other units. However, interventions often impact not only treated units but also untreated units, known as spillover effects. This study introduces a novel panel data method that extends SCM to allow for spillover effects and estimate both treatment and spillover effects. This method leverages a spatial autoregressive panel data model to account for spillover effects. We also propose Bayesian inference methods using Bayesian horseshoe priors for regularization. We apply the proposed method to two empirical studies: evaluating the effect of the California tobacco tax on consumption and estimating the economic impact of the 2011 division of Sudan on GDP per capita.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abadie, Alberto and Diamond, Alexis and Hainmueller, Jens (2010) Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: Estimating the effect of California's tobacco control program | 1.000 | 23 | 7 | 100% |
| 2 | Kim, Sungjin and Lee, Clarence and Gupta, Sachin (2020) Bayesian synthetic control methods | 1.000 | 5 | 3 | 100% |
| 3 | LeSage, James and Pace, Robert Kelley (2009) Introduction to Spatial Econometrics | 0.737 | 3 | 3 | 67% |
| 4 | Carvalho, Carlos M and Polson, Nicholas G and Scott, James G (2010) The horseshoe estimator for sparse signals | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 5 | Pang, Xun and Liu, Licheng and Xu, Yiqing (2022) A Bayesian alternative to synthetic control for comparative case studies | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 6 | Mawejje, Joseph and McSharry, Patrick (2021) The economic cost of conflict: Evidence from South Sudan | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 7 | Rubin, Donald B (1978) Bayesian inference for causal effects: The role of randomization | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 8 | Geweke, John (2004) Getting it right: Joint distribution tests of posterior simulators | 0.511 | 2 | 2 | 50% |
| 9 | Abadie, Alberto and Gardeazabal, Javier (2003) The economic costs of conflict: A case study of the Basque Country | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 10 | Alesina, Alberto and Spolaore, Enrico and Wacziarg, Romain (2000) Economic Integration and Political Disintegration | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 40 scored citations.