EconBase
← All papers

Production function estimation using subjective expectations data

Agnes Norris Keiller, Aureo de Paula, John Van Reenen

arXiv 10 Jul 2024 · Econometrics · 2 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2407.07988 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Standard methods for estimating production functions in the Olley and Pakes (1996) tradition require assumptions on input choices. We introduce a new method that exploits (increasingly available) data on a firm's expectations of its future output and inputs that allows us to obtain consistent production function parameter estimates while relaxing these input demand assumptions. In contrast to dynamic panel methods, our proposed estimator can be implemented on very short panels (including a single cross-section), and Monte Carlo simulations show it outperforms alternative estimators when firms' material input choices are subject to optimization error. Implementing a range of production function estimators on UK data, we find our proposed estimator yields results that are either similar to or more credible than commonly-used alternatives. These differences are larger in industries where material inputs appear harder to optimize. We show that TFP implied by our proposed estimator is more strongly associated with future jobs growth than existing methods, suggesting that failing to adequately account for input endogeneity may underestimate the degree of dynamic reallocation in the economy.

Citation extraction

52
references
92
in-text mentions
52
distinct cited
0
self-citations
14,724
main-text words

appendix boundary found by appendix_command · 67% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Olley, G. Steven, Pakes, Ariel (1996) The Dynamics of Productivity in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry1.00054100%
2Ackerberg, Kevin, Frazer, Garth (2015) Identification Properties of Recent Production Function Estimators0.9209678%
3Bloom, Nicholas, Kawakubo, Takafumi, Meng, Charlotte, Mizen, Paul, R… (2021) Do Well Managed Firms Make Better Forecasts?0.84333100%
4Blundell, Richard, Bond, Stephen (2000) GMM Estimation with persistent panel data: an application to production functions0.84333100%
5Dominitz, Jeff, Manski, Charles F (1997) Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations0.73732100%
6Pya, Natalya, Wood, Simon N (2015) Shape constrained additive models0.6445240%
7Robinson, P. M (1988) Root-N-Consistent Semiparametric Regression0.64441100%
8Arellano, Manuel, Attanasio, Orazio, Augsburg, Britta, Crossman, Sam… Modelling Subjective Expectations of Future Income: Evidence from Colombia and India0.64422100%
9Levinsohn, James, Petrin, Amil (2003) Estimating Production Functions Using Inputs to Control for Unobservables0.64422100%
10(2022) MES Management and Expectations Survey, 2016-2020: Secure Access0.64422100%

Showing the top 10 of 52 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Identification and Estimation in a Time-Varying Endogenous Random Coefficient Panel Data Model0.64422
2Estimating Individual Responses when Tomorrow Matters0.40511