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Testing Sign Congruence Between Two Parameters

Douglas L. Miller, Francesca Molinari, Jörg Stoye

arXiv 20 May 2024 · Econometrics · publishedJournal of Applied Econometrics (2025) · 1 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2405.11759 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

We test the null hypothesis that two parameters $(\mu_1,\mu_2)$ have the same sign, assuming that (asymptotically) normal estimators $(\hat{\mu}_1,\hat{\mu}_2)$ are available. Examples of this problem include the analysis of heterogeneous treatment effects, causal interpretation of reduced-form estimands, meta-studies, and mediation analysis. A number of tests were recently proposed. We recommend a test that is simple and rejects more often than many of these recent proposals. Like all other tests in the literature, it is conservative if the truth is near $(0,0)$ and therefore also biased. To clarify whether these features are avoidable, we also provide a test that is unbiased and has exact size control on the boundary of the null hypothesis, but which has counterintuitive properties and hence we do not recommend. We use the test to improve p-values in Kowalski (2022) from information contained in that paper's main text and to establish statistical significance of some key estimates in Dippel et al. (2021).

Citation extraction

28
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81
in-text mentions
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distinct cited
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appendix boundary found by none_found · 100% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Kowalski, Amanda E (2022) Behaviour within a Clinical Trial and Implications for Mammography Guidelines1.000185100%
2Brinch, Christian N., Magne Mogstad, and Matthew Wiswall (2017) Beyond LATE with a Discrete Instrument1.000145100%
3Kim, Deborah (2023) Testing Sign Agreement, available at https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/e8b9o1bt9ful8s21zh5yi/JMP_DKIM.pdf?rlkey=8rsfnc2572e4gnopflj…1.00053100%
4Dippel, Christian, Robert Gold, Stephan Heblich, and Rodrigo Pinto (2021) The Effect of Trade on Workers and Voters0.87492100%
5Russek-Cohen, Estelle and Richard M. Simon (1993) Qualitative Interactions in Multifactor Studies0.87452100%
6Gail, M. and R. Simon (1985) Testing for Qualitative Interactions between Treatment Effects and Patient Subsets0.73732100%
7Kaplan, David M (2015) Bayesian and frequentist tests of sign equality and other nonlinear inequalities, Working Paper 1516, University of Missouri0.73732100%
8Hansen, Bruce (2022) Econometrics0.64422100%
9Perlman, Michael D. and Lang Wu (1999) The Emperor's New Tests0.51121100%
10Slough, Tara and Scott A. Tyson (2025) Sign-Congruence, External Validity, and Replication0.51121100%

Showing the top 10 of 28 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Inference under First-Order Degeneracy0.40511