EconBase
← All papers

From Predictive Algorithms to Automatic Generation of Anomalies

Sendhil Mullainathan, Ashesh Rambachan

arXiv 15 Apr 2024 · Econometrics · 5 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2404.10111 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

How can we extract theoretical insights from machine learning algorithms? We take a familiar lesson: researchers often turn their intuitions into theoretical insights by constructing "anomalies" -- specific examples highlighting hypothesized flaws in a theory, such as the Allais paradox and the Kahneman-Tversky choice experiments for expected utility. We develop procedures that replace researchers' intuitions with predictive algorithms: given a predictive algorithm and a theory, our procedures automatically generate anomalies for that theory. We illustrate our procedures with a concrete application: generating anomalies for expected utility theory. Based on a neural network that accurately predicts lottery choices, our procedures recover known anomalies for expected utility theory and discover new ones absent from existing work. In incentivized experiments, subjects violate expected utility theory on these algorithmically generated anomalies at rates similar to the Allais paradox and common ratio effect.

Citation extraction

43
references
92
in-text mentions
43
distinct cited
0
self-citations
14,466
main-text words

appendix boundary found by none_found · 100% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Joshua C. Peterson, David D. Bourgin, Mayank Agrawal, Daniel Reichma… (2021) Using large-scale experiments and machine learning to discover theories of human decision-making1.000104100%
2Drew Fudenberg \ Annie Liang (2019) Predicting and Understanding Initial Play0.92844100%
3David W. Harless \ Colin F. Camerer (1994) The Predictive Utility of Generalized Expected Utility Theories0.92843100%
4Toshihiko Hirasawa, Michihiro Kandori \ Akira Matsushita (2025) Using Big Data and Machine Learning to Uncover How Players Choose Mixed Strategies0.92843100%
5Meisam Razaviyayn, Tianjian Huang, Songtao Lu, Maher Nouiehed, Mazia… (2020) Nonconvex Min-Max Optimization: Applications, Challenges, and Recent Theoretical Advances0.92843100%
6Maurice Allais (1953) Le Comportement de l'Homme Rationnel devant le Risque: Critique des Postulats et Axiomes de l'Ecole Americaine0.87462100%
7Daniel Kahneman \ Amos Tversky (1979) Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk0.87452100%
8Isaiah Andrews, Drew Fudenberg, Lihua Lei, Annie Liang \ Chaofeng Wu (2025) The Transfer Performance of Economic Models0.84333100%
9Alexander Peysakhovich \ Jeffrey Naecker (2017) Using methods from machine learning to evaluate behavioral models of choice under risk and ambiguity0.84333100%
10James R. Wright \ Kevin Leyton-Brown (2017) Predicting human behavior in unrepeated, simultaneous-move games0.84333100%

Showing the top 10 of 43 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Large Language Models: An Applied Econometric Framework0.64422
2Mining Causality: AI-Assisted Search for Instrumental Variables0.40511