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Common Trends and Long-Run Identification in Nonlinear Structural VARs

James A. Duffy, Sophocles Mavroeidis

arXiv 8 Apr 2024 · Econometrics

arXiv:2404.05349 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

While it is widely recognised that linear (structural) VARs may fail to capture important aspects of economic time series, the use of nonlinear SVARs has to date been almost entirely confined to the modelling of stationary time series, because of a lack of understanding as to how common stochastic trends may be accommodated within nonlinear models. This has unfortunately circumscribed the range of series to which such models can be applied -- and/or required that these series be first transformed to stationarity, a potential source of misspecification -- and prevented the use of long-run identifying restrictions in these models. To address these problems, we develop a flexible class of additively time-separable nonlinear SVARs, which subsume models with threshold-type endogenous regime switching, both of the piecewise linear and smooth transition varieties. We extend the Granger--Johansen representation theorem to this class of models, obtaining conditions that specialise exactly to the usual ones when the model is linear. We further show that, as a corollary, these models are capable of supporting the same kinds of long-run identifying restrictions as are available in linearly cointegrated SVARs.

Citation extraction

28
references
54
in-text mentions
28
distinct cited
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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Duffy, J. A., S. Mavroeidis, and S. Wycherley (2023) Cointegration with Occasionally Binding Constraints, arXiv:2211.09604v2 self0.81142100%
2Jungers, R. M (2009) The Joint Spectral Radius: theory and applications0.7375540%
3Kristensen, D. and A. Rahbek (2010) Likelihood-based inference for cointegration with nonlinear error-correction0.73732100%
4Blanchard, O. J. and D. Quah (1989) The dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances0.64422100%
5Hubrich, K. and T. Teräsvirta (2013) Thresholds and smooth transitions in vector autoregressive models, in0.64422100%
6Johansen, S (1995) Likelihood-based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models0.64422100%
7King, R. G., C. I. Plosser, J. H. Stock, and M. W. Watson (1991) Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations0.64422100%
8Mavroeidis, S (2021) Identification at the zero lower bound self0.64422100%
9Gourieroux, C., J. J. Laffont, and A. Monfort (1980) Coherency conditions in simultaneous linear equation models with endogenous switching regimes0.5113233%
10Matzkin, R. L (2008) Identification in nonparametric simultaneous equations models0.40510210%

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Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Estimation of a Dynamic Tobit Model with a Unit Root0.40511