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Dynamic Correlation of Market Connectivity, Risk Spillover and Abnormal Volatility in Stock Price

Muzi Chen, Nan Li, Lifen Zheng, Difang Huang, Boyao Wu

arXiv 28 Mar 2024 · Econometrics · publishedPhysica A Statistical Mechanics and its Applications (2021) · 63 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2403.19363 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

The connectivity of stock markets reflects the information efficiency of capital markets and contributes to interior risk contagion and spillover effects. We compare Shanghai Stock Exchange A-shares (SSE A-shares) during tranquil periods, with high leverage periods associated with the 2015 subprime mortgage crisis. We use Pearson correlations of returns, the maximum strongly connected subgraph, and $3\sigma$ principle to iteratively determine the threshold value for building a dynamic correlation network of SSE A-shares. Analyses are carried out based on the networking structure, intra-sector connectivity, and node status, identifying several contributions. First, compared with tranquil periods, the SSE A-shares network experiences a more significant small-world and connective effect during the subprime mortgage crisis and the high leverage period in 2015. Second, the finance, energy and utilities sectors have a stronger intra-industry connectivity than other sectors. Third, HUB nodes drive the growth of the SSE A-shares market during bull periods, while stocks have a think-tail degree distribution in bear periods and show distinct characteristics in terms of market value and finance. Granger linear and non-linear causality networks are also considered for the comparison purpose. Studies on the evolution of inter-cycle connectivity in the SSE A-share market may help investors improve portfolios and develop more robust risk management policies.

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
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3M. Chen, Y. Wang, B. Wu, D. Huang (2021) Dynamic analyses of contagion risk and module evolution on the sse a-shares market based on minimum information entropy0.51121100%
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7S. R. Bentes (2018) Is stock market volatility asymmetric? A multi-period analysis for five countries0.40511100%
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9E. C. Brechmann, C. Czado (2013) Risk management with high-dimensional vine copulas: An analysis of the Euro Stoxx 500.40511100%
10A. Clauset, C. R. Shalizi, M. E. J. Newman (2009) Power-law distributions in empirical data0.40511100%

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