EconBase
← All papers

Credible causal inference beyond toy models

Pablo Geraldo Bastías

arXiv 18 Feb 2024 · Statistics — Methodology

arXiv:2402.11659 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Causal inference with observational data critically relies on untestable and extra-statistical assumptions that have (sometimes) testable implications. Well-known sets of assumptions that are sufficient to justify the causal interpretation of certain estimators are called identification strategies. These templates for causal analysis, however, do not perfectly map into empirical research practice. Researchers are often left in the disjunctive of either abstracting away from their particular setting to fit in the templates, risking erroneous inferences, or avoiding situations in which the templates cannot be applied, missing valuable opportunities for conducting empirical analysis. In this article, I show how directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) can help researchers to conduct empirical research and assess the quality of evidence without excessively relying on research templates. First, I offer a concise introduction to causal inference frameworks. Then I survey the arguments in the methodological literature in favor of using research templates, while either avoiding or limiting the use of causal graphical models. Third, I discuss the problems with the template model, arguing for a more flexible approach to DAGs that helps illuminating common problems in empirical settings and improving the credibility of causal claims. I demonstrate this approach in a series of worked examples, showing the gap between identification strategies as invoked by researchers and their actual applications. Finally, I conclude highlighting the benefits that routinely incorporating causal graphical models in our scientific discussions would have in terms of transparency, testability, and generativity.

Citation extraction

60
references
94
in-text mentions
60
distinct cited
0
self-citations
21,543
main-text words

appendix boundary found by none_found · 100% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Lundberg, I., Johnson, R., & Stewart, B. M (2021) What Is Your Estimand? Defining the Target Quantity Connects Statistical Evidence to Theory0.84333100%
2Pearl, J (2009) Causality\/0.81142100%
3Petersen, M. L., & van der Laan, M. J (2014) Causal Models and Learning from Data: Integrating Causal Modeling and Statistical Estimation0.73732100%
4Sharkey, P., Torrats-Espinosa, G., & Takyar, D (2017) Community and the Crime Decline: The Causal Effect of Local Nonprofits on Violent Crime0.69381100%
5Imbens, G. W (2020) Potential Outcome and Directed Acyclic Graph Approaches to Causality: Relevance for Empirical Practice in Economics0.69361100%
6Cinelli, C., & Hazlett, C (2020) Making sense of sensitivity: Extending omitted variable bias0.64422100%
7Elwert, F (2013) Graphical Causal Models0.64422100%
8Imbens, G. W (2010) Better LATE Than Nothing: Some Comments on Deaton (2009) and Heckman and Urzua (2009)0.64422100%
9Pearl, J., & Mackenzie, D (2018) The Book of Why: The New Science of Cause and Effect\/0.64422100%
10Cinelli, C., Forney, A., & Pearl, J (2022) A Crash Course in Good and Bad Controls0.58531100%

Showing the top 10 of 60 scored citations.