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Temporal Aggregation for the Synthetic Control Method

Liyang Sun, Eli Ben-Michael, Avi Feller

arXiv 22 Jan 2024 · Econometrics · publishedAEA Papers and Proceedings (2024) · 2 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2401.12084 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

The synthetic control method (SCM) is a popular approach for estimating the impact of a treatment on a single unit with panel data. Two challenges arise with higher frequency data (e.g., monthly versus yearly): (1) achieving excellent pre-treatment fit is typically more challenging; and (2) overfitting to noise is more likely. Aggregating data over time can mitigate these problems but can also destroy important signal. In this paper, we bound the bias for SCM with disaggregated and aggregated outcomes and give conditions under which aggregating tightens the bounds. We then propose finding weights that balance both disaggregated and aggregated series.

Citation extraction

12
references
20
in-text mentions
12
distinct cited
3
self-citations
2,470
main-text words

appendix boundary found by appendix_command · 81% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Liyang Sun, Eli Ben-Michael \ Avi Feller (2023) Using Multiple Outcomes to Improve the Synthetic Control Method self0.9285380%
2Bruno Ferman \ Cristine Pinto (2021) Synthetic Controls with Imperfect Pre-Treatment Fit0.84333100%
3Alberto Abadie, Alexis Diamond \ Jens Hainmueller (2010) Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California's Tobacco Control Program0.73732100%
4Nikolay Doudchenko \ Guido W. Imbens (2017) Difference-In-Differences and Synthetic Control Methods: A Synthesis0.40511100%
5Alberto Abadie \ Jaume Vives i Bastida (2022) Synthetic Controls in Action0.40511100%
6Muhammad Amjad, Devavrat Shah \ Dennis Shen (2018) Robust Synthetic Control0.40511100%
7Susan Athey, Mohsen Bayati, Nikolay Doudchenko, Guido Imbens \ Khash… (2021) Matrix Completion Methods for Causal Panel Data Models0.40511100%
8Suzanne O. Bell, Elizabeth A. Stuart \ Alison Gemmill (2023) Texas 2021 Ban on Abortion in Early Pregnancy and Changes in Live Births0.40511100%
9Eli Ben-Michael, Avi Feller \ Jesse Rothstein (2021) The Augmented Synthetic Control Method self0.40511100%
10Eli Ben-Michael, Avi Feller \ Jesse Rothstein (2022) Synthetic controls with staggered adoption self0.40511100%

Showing the top 10 of 12 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Using Multiple Outcomes to Improve the Synthetic Control Method0.40511
2The Harmonic Synthetic Control Method0.40511