Luca Barbaglia, Lorenzo Frattarolo, Niko Hauzenberger, Dominik Hirschbuehl, Florian Huber, Luca Onorante, Michael Pfarrhofer, Luca Tiozzo Pezzoli
arXiv 18 Jan 2024 · Econometrics · publishedInternational Journal of Forecasting (2025)
arXiv:2401.10054 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
Timely information about the state of regional economies can be essential for planning, implementing and evaluating locally targeted economic policies. However, European regional accounts for output are published at an annual frequency and with a two-year delay. To obtain robust and more timely measures in a computationally efficient manner, we propose a mixed-frequency dynamic factor model that accounts for national information to produce high-frequency estimates of the regional gross value added (GVA). We show that our model produces reliable nowcasts of GVA in 162 regions across 12 European countries.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Koop G, McIntyre S, Mitchell J, Poon A (2020) Regional output growth in the United Kingdom: More timely and higher frequency estimates from 1970 | 1.000 | 7 | 3 | 100% |
| 2 | Mariano RS, Murasawa Y (2003) A new coincident index of business cycles based on monthly and quarterly series | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 3 | Mariano RS, Murasawa Y (2010) A coincident index, common factors, and monthly real GDP | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 4 | Billé AG, Tomelleri A, Ravazzolo F (2023) Forecasting regional GDPs: a comparison with spatial dynamic panel data models | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 5 | Henzel SR, Lehmann R, Wohlrabe K (2015) Nowcasting regional GDP: The case of the free state of saxony | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 6 | Koop G, McIntyre S, Mitchell J, Poon A (2022) Using stochastic hierarchical aggregation constraints to nowcast regional economic aggregates | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 7 | Lehmann R, Wohlrabe K (2015) Forecasting GDP at the regional level with many predictors | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 8 | Carvalho CM, Polson NG, Scott JG (2010) The horseshoe estimator for sparse signals | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 9 | Carvalho T, Krammer F, Iwasaki A (2021) The first 12 months of COVID-19: a timeline of immunological insights | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 10 | Chan JC, Poon A, Zhu D (2023) High-dimensional conditionally Gaussian state space models with missing data | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 21 scored citations.