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Bayesian Analysis of High Dimensional Vector Error Correction Model

Parley R Yang, Alexander Y Shestopaloff

arXiv 28 Dec 2023 · Statistics — Methodology

arXiv:2312.17061 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is a classic method to analyse cointegration relationships amongst multivariate non-stationary time series. In this paper, we focus on high dimensional setting and seek for sample-size-efficient methodology to determine the level of cointegration. Our investigation centres at a Bayesian approach to analyse the cointegration matrix, henceforth determining the cointegration rank. We design two algorithms and implement them on simulated examples, yielding promising results particularly when dealing with high number of variables and relatively low number of observations. Furthermore, we extend this methodology to empirically investigate the constituents of the S&P 500 index, where low-volatility portfolios can be found during both in-sample training and out-of-sample testing periods.

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Rockova, Veronika, George, Edward I (2018) The Spike-and-Slab LASSO0.87472100%
2Liang, Chong, Schienle, Melanie (2019) Determination of vector error correction models in high dimensions0.81142100%
3Castillo, Aad (2012) Needles and Straw in a Haystack: Posterior concentration for possibly sparse sequences0.40511100%
4Chen, Shi, Schienle, Melanie (2022) Large Spillover Networks of Nonstationary Systems0.40511100%
5Engle, Robert F., Granger, C. W. J (1987) Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing0.40511100%
6Rockova, Veronika, George, Edward I (2016) Bayesian penalty mixing: The case of a non-separable penalty0.40511100%
7Bai, Ray, Rockova, Veronika, George, Edward I (2021) Spike-and-slab meets lasso: A review of the spike-and-slab lasso0.40511100%
8Rockova, Veronika (2018) Bayesian estimation of sparse signals with a continuous spike-and-slab prior0.40511100%
9Johansen, Søren (1991) Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models0.40511100%
10Barber, David, Cemgil, A Taylan, Chiappa, Silvia (2011) Bayesian time series models0.40511100%

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Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Low Volatility Stock Portfolio Through High Dimensional Bayesian Cointegration0.64422