Maria Dolores Gadea, Jesus Gonzalo, Andrey Ramos
arXiv 11 Dec 2023 · Econometrics · publishedEconomics Letters (2024) · 4 citations (OpenAlex)
arXiv:2312.06379 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
Determining whether Global Average Temperature (GAT) is an integrated process of order 1, I(1), or is a stationary process around a trend function is crucial for detection, attribution, impact and forecasting studies of climate change. In this paper, we investigate the nature of trends in GAT building on the analysis of individual temperature grids. Our 'micro-founded' evidence suggests that GAT is stationary around a non-linear deterministic trend in the form of a linear function with a one-period structural break. This break can be attributed to a combination of individual grid breaks and the standard aggregation method under acceleration in global warming. We illustrate our findings using simulations.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gadea, M. D. and J. Gonzalo (2020) Trends in distributional characteristics: Existence of global warming self | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 2 | Gay-Garcia, C., F. Estrada, and A. Sánchez (2009) Global and hemispheric temperatures revisited | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 3 | AR6-IPCC (2021) Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 4 | Kaufmann, R. K., H. Kauppi, and J. H. Stock (2010) Does temperature contain a stochastic trend? evaluating conflicting statistical results | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 5 | Seidel, D. J. and J. R. Lanzante (2004) An assessment of three alternatives to linear trends for characterizing global atmospheric temperature changes | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 6 | Mann, M. E., R. S. Bradley, and M. K. Hughes (1998) Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 7 | McKitrick, R., T. Vogelsang, and J. Christy (2023) Temperature trends, climate attribution and the nonstationarity question | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 8 | Bennedsen, M., E. Hillebrand., and S. J. Koopman (2023) A multivariate dynamic statistical model of the global carbon budget 1959–2020 | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 9 | Chen, L., J. Gao, and F. Vahid (2022) Global temperatures and greenhouse gases: A common features approach | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 10 | Kim, D. and P. Perron (2009) Unit root tests allowing for a break in the trend function at an unknown time under both the null and alternative hypotheses | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 23 scored citations.