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Causal inference and policy evaluation without a control group

Augusto Cerqua, Marco Letta, Fiammetta Menchetti

arXiv 10 Dec 2023 · Econometrics · 5 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2312.05858 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Without a control group, the most widespread methodologies for estimating causal effects cannot be applied. To fill this gap, we propose the Machine Learning Control Method, a new approach for causal panel analysis that estimates causal parameters without relying on untreated units. We formalize identification within the potential outcomes framework and then provide estimation based on machine learning algorithms. To illustrate the practical relevance of our method, we present simulation evidence, a replication study, and an empirical application on the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on educational inequality. We implement the proposed approach in the companion R package MachineControl

Citation extraction

74
references
131
in-text mentions
74
distinct cited
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17,115
main-text words

appendix boundary found by appendix_command · 75% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Arkhangelsky, D. and G. Imbens (2024) Causal models for longitudinal and panel data: A survey0.92843100%
2Imbens, G. W. and D. B. Rubin (2015) Causal inference in Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences0.81142100%
3Carlana, M., E. La Ferrara, and C. Lopez (2023) Exacerbated inequalities: The learning loss from covid-19 in italy0.7374275%
4Viviano, D. and J. Bradic (2023) Synthetic learner: model-free inference on treatments over time0.7373367%
5Carvalho, C., R. Masini, and M. C. Medeiros (2018) ArCo: An artificial counterfactual approach for high-dimensional panel time-series data0.73732100%
6Masini, R. and M. C. Medeiros (2021) Counterfactual analysis with artificial controls: Inference, high dimensions, and nonstationarity0.73732100%
7Wager, S. and S. Athey (2018) Estimation and inference of heterogeneous treatment effects using random forests0.73732100%
8Baltagi, B. H (2008) Econometric analysis of panel data, Volume 40.73732100%
9Abadie, A., A. Diamond, and J. Hainmueller (2010) Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: Estimating the effect of California’s tobacco control program0.64422100%
10Brodersen, K. H., F. Gallusser, J. Koehler, N. Remy, and S. L. Scott (2015) Inferring causal impact using bayesian structural time-series models0.64422100%

Showing the top 10 of 74 scored citations.